Your dog might be relieved if the Blue Angels aren’t flying for next weekend’s Fleet Week celebrations, but there is indeed a possibility that the looming government shutdown will cancel the involvement of US military planes and ships.

You’ve likely heard the rumblings that we are on the verge of another government shutdown that would take effect at 12:01 am ET October 1, which would be 9 pm Pacific Time tonight. And considering that we have lived through three federal government shutdowns over the last 12 years, at this point you kind of know the drill. Though KTVU has a reminder of what happens during a government shutdown: federal employees in the Bay Area would be furloughed or would work without pay, some federal assistance programs are paused, but the mail still gets delivered, and Social Security checks will still go out.

Since this shutdown would be happening at the beginning of October, KTVU points out that the shutdown would also cancel some aspects of next week's scheduled Fleet Week observances.

"The Navy and Marine Corps would not  be able to participate, but there will still be a local community event," US Navy corps planner Brian O'Rourke told NBC Bay Area.

Without the Navy and Marines participating, that means there would be no Blue Angels air show. Many of the other high-profile annual favorite aircraft like Fat Albert would also not be participating, and there would be no active military ship tours. No US military ships or aircraft would be involved, though there would still be a Fleet Week, as plenty of private aircrafts and other nation’s military planes also fly in Fleet Week.

“Our international partners remain confirmed, with visiting ships from Canada and Colombia, and the San Francisco Fleet Week Air Show presented by United will feature the Canadian Snowbirds, returning for the first time since 2017, among many other performers," SF Fleet Week public affairs officer David Cruise told NBC Bay Area. "San Francisco Fleet Week is as much a civic tradition as a military one."

Fleet Week has tons of deep-pocketed sponsors, so it's not like they're going to cancel the whole thing. They just won’t have a few of the event’s more iconic US military ships and planes in the air and boat shows. And according to NBC Bay Area, Navy personnel based in San Diego are currently still planning on making the trip.

"Our hope is for a swift decision on a funding bill," O’Rourke added, per NBC Bay Area. "If the government does shut down but there is a swift resolution, we will consider the circumstances and timing to determine how we might salvage military participation in San Francisco Fleet Week. San Francisco Fleet Week has earned a well-deserved reputation with sailors and Marines as a favorite port visit."

Looking at the 2025 Fleet Week schedule, there are minor events that begin this Monday, October 6. But the big deal attractions of the Air Show and the Parade of Ships start next Friday, October 10 (plus locals know that the planes generally start buzzing the town on Thursday with their warm-up runs). So if we get a government shutdown at midnight Eastern Time tonight, that’s ten days of negotiations that could end up saving all of Fleet Week if some sort of deal gets struck before October 10.

Looking at past government shutdowns, the 1995-96 shutdown (which went through Christmas and New Year’s) lasted 21 days. The 2013 shutdown under Obama lasted 16 days, Obama’s second shutdown in 2018 lasted but three days, and the first-term Trump shutdown in 2018-19 lasted 35 days. So these tend to go longer than ten days, but of course how this one goes is anyone’s guess.

If this all sounds familiar, it’s because it is familiar. A government shutdown almost happened during Fleet Week 2023, just two years ago. That shutdown was averted with a last-minute deal, and that year’s Fleet Week went off without a hitch.

And even if there’s no shutdown, Fleet Week could still see some cancellations. Remember, just last year, heavy fog ended up causing the cancelation of the Saturday Fleet Week airshow.

Related: Navy Parachutist Crash-Lands Into Spectators at Marina Green [SFist]

Image: Blue Angels F/A-18 jets flying in tight diamond formation over the Golden Gate Bridge during the 2023 San Francisco Fleet Week air show, leaving smoke trails across the sky.