In a survey of 929 tech and healthcare startup executives, Silicon Valley Bank has made a shocking discovery. Just 64 percent felt business conditions would improve this year, writes Wired, representing an 18 percent drop off in expectations from the past two years.
Furthermore, "This survey was done in December, and we saw an even more dramatic change in January and February as we were talking to our clients,” Silicon Valley Bank CEO and president Greg Becker said. “They’re assuming things are going to get more difficult.”
If optimism is the main metric by which Silicon Valley has been so far measured, this crisis of confidence might be seen as a sort of crash. So what could it mean for that rarest of breeds, the privately financed, billion dollar valuation "unicorn?"
In December, angelic investor type Marc Benioff cast aspersions on "unicorn mania", calling the Valley's fixation on high-valuations and going public a liability. Well, Benioffs' fears might be assuaged. The reign of the unicorn could well be behind us.
"We’ve had so many years of expansion and access to capital,” says Becker. “This year you’ll see more of these companies return to their natural levels.” One definition of normal: Wired observes that "instead of focusing on growth at all costs, as many start-ups have done in recent years, executives say they plan to work toward profitability." Wha??
But what of the all-powerful IPO — the gold ring of startupdom? “The vast majority of companies—maybe 90-95 percent—get acquired at the end of the day,” Becker adds. That doesn't sound very magical to me — sort of realistic, even?
Related: Marc Benioff: 'Unicorn Mania' Is 'Dangerous For Our Silicon Valley Economy'