Some new depressing reports have arrived from Paragon Real Estate Group — well, I should clarify that these reports are manna from heaven for everyone trying to sell a house or condo in this city this year, but they are the stuff of nightmares and tears for most of the rest of us. The median sale price for a house has, indeed, skyrocketed as more new (rich) people arrive in town and supply has shrunk, and as home-buying season kicked into high gear this spring. That means that if you were thinking about buying a house last fall, you probably should not have waited — the median price has jumped from $1,050,000 in Q3 of 2014 to $1,360,000, or a full 30 percent.

And just to drive home the insanity, Paragon has animated this rapid upward trend, showing condo and TIC prices by comparison as well. The median price for a condo as of June 2, 2015 was $1.14M, up 20 percent over last fall. (The animated chart below, which shows home price appreciation, versus sales, tops out at $1.25M for homes and $1.1M for condos.)

As you can see in the smoothed-out, animated graph below, prices have not tended to go down much over time, even during boom and bust cycles when you might expect them to — they didn't even drop in the immediate wake of the 1989 earthquake, but fell a bit two years later during the recession of the early 1990s. No, you see drops of 10 to 12 percent in those first two recessions, and a 27 percent drop between 2008 and 2011, which still did not negate the 59 percent price boom that had happened in the seven years prior. Thus, now, you can get $1 million for a dirt lot.

But of course now what we're seeing is an unprecedented climb, especially for single-family homes, spurred by our population boom, our lack of density, and the general dearth of homes remaining on the market — presumably, unless you're a flipper, you sold whatever you wanted to sell as you watched prices climb the last two years, anticipating a possible bubble burst.

The graph below shows just how much employment has risen the last three years, helping that for-sale market grow and grow — also helping it is the insanity of rents, because if you can afford to and you aren't leaving next year, you're probably going to buy something.

So, in closing, if you still have property to sell — or if you bought something five or fifteen years ago — consider yourself blessed. MUST BE NICE.

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