The SF Democratic Party may be packed with moderates who support Supervisor Joel Engardio, but they’re leaving him twisting in the wind for now, and declining to vote for another month on whether to endorse for or against the recall.

Mission Local has published an analysis of the state of the SF Supervisor Joel Engardio recall election on Monday, the gist of which is that Engardio faces an uphill fight to remain in office, despite his campaign's overwhelming money advantage.

Elected officials facing recalls have to get more than 50% of the vote or else be booted from office, and there’s no alternative on the ballot against them. That’s particularly precarious for Engardio, after only winning his District 4 supervisor’s seat by a mere 469 votes (out of nearly 27,000 overall votes cast), being on the wrong side of Great Highway closure sentiment in his district, and of course, making his political career by being an attack dog promoting the Chesa Boudin recall and school board recall that same year.

But that Mission Local report also contains a couple of very interesting nuggets, and they bode badly for Engardio. Mission Local notes that despite the SF Democratic Party apparatus now being controlled by moderate officials who supported Engardio’s election, the party declined to give Engardio the lifeline of an endorsement, and all of the free campaign mailers and advertising that would have come with.    

"The local Democratic Party, jarringly, called off its July special meeting to weigh in on the recall,” according to Mission Local. “We’re told that not enough votes could be whipped to support ‘no position,’ and the Dems won’t reconvene until late August. By that time, recall voting in District 4 will have been ongoing for nearly two weeks.”

Okay, so the local Democratic party apparatus did not vote to take the “no position” position on the recall. But that leaves some major questions. Does that mean they delayed the vote because too many voting members have turned on Engardio and are supporting the recall? Or does that mean that they delayed the vote because they did not want to infuriate District 4 voters by sticking up for Engardio against their will?

Well, we took the liberty of watching the entire July 25 SF Democratic Party meeting that Mission Local describes, which is seen above (We do not recommend you do the same, it’s two hours long and boring as hell). But at the 55:30 mark, the party’s chair of the Issues & Resolutions Committee Lily Ho describes their approach to the “special election for District 4” — pointedly, she does not ever say the words “recall” or “Engardio” — and says the party is just now “opening applications” for the party endorsements for thumbs-up or thumbs-down on the recall. She adds that the recall endorsement vote will happen at their August 27 meeting at the Bayview Opera House.

That does not acknowledge any of the behind-the-scenes jockeying that Mission Local describes. But it is consistent with there being a delay on the endorsement, with the proper lipstick applied to make it sound like this is just normal process. That is not normal process, considering that early voting will have already started ten days before that meeting. If the SF Democratic Party cavalry is coming to save Joel Engardio, they won’t come until well after the fight has already begun, and those free “Stand with Joel” mailers and advertisements would be arriving pretty late in the process.

Voting party members may have been spooked by a very large contingent of pro-recall speakers who overwhelmed that meeting’s public comment component (seen above, toting the official yellow recall signs). D4 resident Max Leung complained to party officials that “Most people who do not live in the Sunset are barely ever going to go to that stupid-ass park,” and as another commenter showed, only two voting members of the SF Democratic Party live in D4.

Mission Local points out another very troubling bit of timing for Engardio.

“Recall ballots will be mailed to District 4 voters on Aug. 18,” as Mission Local explains. “So it’s unfortunate timing for Engardio that the setup and breakdown for Outside Lands bookend that date. Additional road closures and traffic snarls for Westside drivers are not what Engardio needs right now. “

It’s actually worse for Engardio than Mission Local describes. Those road closures are already in effect, and many of them will remain so through August 20. So District 4 voters will have had the hassle of closed roads for nearly a full month when the recall voting begins.

Related: Sunset Night Market on Pause, Possibly Falling Victim to Recall Fight Involving Supervisor Joel Engardio [SFist]

Image: Joel Engardio via Facebook