After some record-setting rainfall around the Bay Area last week, we won't be seeing much of a dry spell until later in the week, as showers will continue arriving for the next couple of days.
There is another atmospheric river flowing in off the Pacific Monday, but it's hitting to the south of us this time, primarily impacting Monterey and the Central Coast. San Jose is expected to get to the northern fringes of that storm system, with San Francisco and Oakland only getting a smattering of the precipitation Monday and Tuesday.
Rainfall totals in San Francisco likely won't top a half-inch between now and Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
More rain on the way, but how much? Let's take a look as most reasonable outcomes. There is some uncertainty regarding exact placement of rainfall maximum. Utilization probabilistic information gives meteorologists a "boom vs bust" scenario and most likely amounts. #cawx pic.twitter.com/M3uQqyaF3F
— NWS Bay Area π (@NWSBayArea) November 25, 2024
KMUX Radar [5:40 AM]π§οΈWet Commute ahead...rain continues to move over the Bay Area and Central Coast. Light to moderate rain is expected with minor ponding on roadways. Use caution and allow extra time today. #cawx pic.twitter.com/yCA9Huf3ka
— NWS Bay Area π (@NWSBayArea) November 25, 2024
In its latest forecast discussion for Monday morning, the National Weather Service says to expect steady light rain today, "with the rain turning more showery for Tuesday."
The rain will taper off Tuesday night into Wednesday, with Wednesday afternoon looking dry, along with Thanksgiving morning. "However, a slight chance (15%-25%) of showers will develop late Thursday afternoon and evening, in time for the post-Thanksgiving festivities."
Depending on whether you're a Thanksgiving-meal-after-dark family, this could mean some rain by the time you're sitting down for turkey.
San Francisco has already seen 158% of its normal rainfall for the "rain year" to date, thanks to last week's storm. But rainfall totals here were not as dramatic as they were in the North Bay.
San Francisco has recorded 4.4 inches of rain since July 1, with a couple of those inches falling between last Wednesday and Friday. Normal rainfall by November 24 would be three inches.
Santa Rosa, which would normally have seen 4.5 inches by this time of the year, has now recorded 15.66 inches, or 350% of normal rainfall. As the National Weather Service points out, with downtown Santa Rosa seeing 12.5 inches of rain in three days, that qualifies as a 1,000-year rain event.
Ukiah also saw significant rainfall last week, with 11 inches so far this year, or 239% of normal.