London Breed’s sudden new strong standing in mayoral-race polling seems powered by the Asian and Chinese-American vote, as her approval rating has doubled in that demographic over the last six months.
The Chronicle put out a poll last week showing that SF Mayor London Breed was currently ahead by eight points in the first-choice vote for November’s mayoral election. And the Chron is still sifting through that polling data, putting out more detail today that Breed is the leading mayoral candidate among Asian voters.
The Chronicle poll conducted between July 31 and August 5 found Breed led among the crucial Asian-American vote with 27%, followed by Daniel Lurie at 24%, Mark Farrell at 15%, Aaron Peskin at 8%, and Ahsha Safai with 4% of the Asian-American vote.
But notably, Breed’s approval rating among local Asian-American voters has doubled since the Chronicle’s last mayoral race poll in February. In that February poll, her approval rating among Asian-American voters was a mere 19%, last week’s poll found her approval rating among those voters at 43%. Yes, Breed is still under water with an overall 57% disapproval rating among Asian-American voters, but more than doubling one’s approval rating with a key voting bloc can still be pretty important in a five-way, ranked-choice race.
And also today, the New York Times has a profile of how all five mayoral candidates are pursuing the Chinese-American vote. That report notes that candidates are recruiting Cantonese-speaking volunteers, promoting themselves on the app WeChat, and wooing activists who were involved in the 2022 recall campaigns.
“It’s like a 50-state strategy,” mayoral candidate Aaron Peskin, who also represents the Chinatown district on the Board of Supervisors, tells the Times. “You’ve got to do everything.”
The Chronicle speculates that Breed’s improved standing among Asian-American voters may be because of a decrease in crime amidst the whole fentanyl crackdown, or perhaps because of a bolstered escort program for elderly pedestrians in high-risk crime areas. And who knows, maybe it’s also partially driven by her push to get some pandas at the San Francisco Zoo.
But it’s also important to note that Breed is not running away with some supermajority of the Asian-American vote — after all, Daniel Lurie is polling just three points behind her among that demographic. That community does not vote as a bloc, and notably, 21% of SF Asian-American voters are still undecided on how they’ll vote in the mayoral race.
Related: Breed Bounces Back Big-Time With Sizable Lead In New Mayoral Race Poll [SFist]
Image: @SFAC via Twitter