A combined $400 million-plus in spending has bought no love for the two competing sports gambling measures on California’s November ballot, whereas a new millionaire’s tax stands just 1% shy of the majority threshold it needs.
You might remember that in the big 2020 Trump vs. Biden election, one of your California ballot measures was a gig worker measure called Prop 22, which Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and their tech ilk spent a record-setting $224 million to get passed. A month out from the 2022 elections, that record has already been shattered. Those two competing sports gambling measures, Props 26 and 27, have spent well above $400 million combined according to the Los Angeles Times, with the election still more than 30 days away.
Latest Berkeley-IGS polling confirms that campaign consultants and broadcasters are the big winners in this year's $450 million Prop 26/27 legalized sports betting initiative battle.https://t.co/ACeG4CpDOB pic.twitter.com/D4a7CzIg20— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) October 4, 2022
And at 30-some days out, it looks like this was not money well spent. The Bay Area News Group reports on a new set of polls on many of the state ballot measures, and both gambling measures are polling quite terribly. Prop 26, which would allow sports gambling at tribal casinos, has only 31% support. Prop 27, which is backed by DraftKings and FanDuel and would legalize sports betting in California on those platforms, is doing even worse at a measly 27% support.
“These results suggest that the sports wagering initiatives are foundering in the face of the opposition advertising campaigns,” said Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies co-director Eric Schickler, whose institute conducted the polls, said in a statement. “The lack of support among key demographic groups makes passage of each an uphill climb, at best.”
And then you’ve got this Prop 30, which proposes to add an additional 1.75% tax on people making $2 million or more a year to fund electric vehicles. As Cal Matters points out, and as you see above, Gavin Newsom is campaigning hard against it. He calls Prop 30 “a Trojan horse that puts corporate welfare above the fiscal welfare of our entire state,” insinuating (though he won’t say their name) that Lyft hopes to use these funds to subsidize electrifying their vehicle fleet.
And this one’s worth watching. Per the News Group, “The poll also found that more California likely voters are inclined to support than oppose Proposition 30, a new tax on the rich that primarily would subsidize the proliferation of electric cars and the charging station infrastructure needed to power them. But the 49% in favor was short of the majority needed for the new tax to pass, with 37% opposed and 14% still undecided.”
Notable fact: The SF Standard’s billionaire VC funder Michael Moritz is also one of the top donors to the No On 30 campaign, as noted at the end of the ad above. Other opponents to Prop 30 include the California Chamber of Commerce, and the California Republican Party.
Supporters — which include the Chronicle Editorial Board and the California Democratic Party — suggest that while the measure may not be perfect, it's a least a step in the right direction for addressing climate change.
But speaking of Gavin Newsom, did you even realize he’s up for reelection in November? The race continues to be a nothingburger, as Newsom is trouncing his opponent, Sacramento-area state Senator Brian Dahle, by a 53%-31% margin.
Image: Joe Kukura, SFist