Will California be slipping back into a drought come January 2018, or will we see deluge after deluge again, causing dams to burst at the seams, sending trees, roads, and bridges into ravines or into the Pacific and dumping another hundred feet of snow in the Sierra? That is the question facing climatologists right now as we stare down what's jokingly called a "La Nada" winter i.e. neither an El Niño or a La Niña, but what should be just a "normal" one.
The Southern California News Group called up several experts, including NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert, who says there is "no strong signal" this year as to whether California will see a wetter or drier than usual winter. "We either slip back into drought or we have a repeat of last year," says Patzert.
Patzert also points to climate change overall, saying, "We know that California winters are [getting] warmer and the snowpack comes later and leaves earlier. That is a trend, not a forecast." He calls climate change an "additional variable" that is affecting long-range forecasts, and impacting natural cycles like El Niño or a La Niña, causing them to be less predictable. (Patzert notably predicted that "Godzilla El Nino" for 2015-16 that never really came to be.)
AccuWeather.com meteorologist Ken Clark is a bit more bullish on the rain, saying Northern California in particular is likely to have "a moderate winter with a decent amount of storms," and likely a repeat appearance of the atmospheric rivers that caused major downpours and floods all over the state last winter.
The Old Farmer's Almanac, if it's to be trusted, has California on course for a cold and wet winter, while the Pacific Northwest will see a more cold and dry one.
More on all this from the Weather Channel, below.