Forget droughts and earthquakes for a moment. According to a new report from the Bay Area Council, a business foundation dating back to 1945, an overdue "mega storm" that could make the rainpocalypse look like drizzle would do $10.4 billion in damage, putting it on par with 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake.
The sci-fi-ish term invoked refers to a jumbo-sized "atmospheric river" the same term employed to describe the rainpocalypse in December, but this would be the equivalent of 10 Mississippi Rivers in terms of precipitation over the region during an estimated 10-day period.
Guerneville, CA got 8.5" of rain over their 9.879 mi^2 area in 24 hours. How many gallons/min was the storm dropping? pic.twitter.com/FKIZ1LRIk8
— Math In The News (@MathInTheNews) December 12, 2014
Yes, the drought. That and the mega storm are of apiece with California's changing climate. Per the report, "California and the Bay Area can expect increasingly dramatic weather swings as the effects of climate change become more pronounced and dangerous." If climate change doesn't scare you, no evil thing will, but if you aren't adequately spooked then try out this website from the Council called "Bay on the Brink."
Though the phenomenon is scientific, the results would be economic and that is the focus of the report. This is the Council's breakdown of the $10.4 billion in predicted damages.
- $5.9 billion in structural damage
- $4.2 billion in damage to building contents
- $128 million in loss of due to electrical facility damages
- $85.7 million in costs due to airport closings or flight delays
- $78 million in costs due to road closures.
Santa Clara, San Mateo and Marin counties would be hit hardest, and perhaps 70 percent of economic losses would be in low-lying Peninsula and Silicon Valley areas. As the report notes, that's "where companies from Facebook to Google employ hundreds of thousands of workers, 355,000 residents have homes and key economic and civic infrastructure is located, including ports, airports, and water, energy, sewage and transportation facilities."
“Knowing that we are a coastal city in a region already vulnerable to disaster and that climate change is impacting weather patterns around the globe, we have to take steps to protect ourselves from the inevitable,” said Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf. According to SFF Mayor Ed Lee, the report "highlights the real dangers we face from extreme weather events and climate change in the Bay Area.”
It's not just for the sake of optimism that the report also comes with recommendations. Those are simplified for the "Bay on the Brink" site to emphasize improvements to levees, seawalls, and naturally protective wetlands. But listed more fully as in the report itself, they are:
- Support the development of cost-effective structural and non-structural strategies, tailored to the region’s variety of local environments, to reduce flood risk.
- Identify new and expand existing local, regional, state and federal funding for flood infrastructure investment.
- Identify and prioritize projects necessary to protect key economic assets such as transport, power, water, wastewater, employment centers, and communications infrastructure.
- Incorporate community resilience to extreme storms into Hazard Mitigation and General Plans.
- Identify ways to leverage new development under regional growth plans to provide local flood protection and reduce economic vulnerability.
- Incorporate climate change predictions, including sea-level rise and changes in rainfall, into flood risk analyses.
- Support development of accurate weather and flood forecasting, particularly for lead time on atmospheric rivers.
The whole report, ominously titled "Surviving the Storm," is available here. In the video below, Bay Area Council Senior Director Sean Randolph discusses its findings.
Related: Drought Rules Revised Based On Feedback, SF In Most Lenient Water Usage Tier