Several Democrats in the race for California governor gained some ground in a new poll conducted just in the last two days, following the swift downfall of Eric Swalwell, but the two Republican candidates still hold a small lead.
The new poll, conducted April 14 and 15 by Emerson College Polling, has Republican Steven Hilton holding his lead at 16.6%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14.4%, and entrepreneur Tom Steyer nearly neck and neck with Bianco at 14.1%.
Steyer and former Congresswoman Katie Porter are expected to reap the most votes following the departure of Swalwell, and Porter is at 10.3% in this poll — up from 8.4% in Emerson's March poll. And also rising in the poll is former health secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who is now neck and neck with Porter at 10.4%.
As Bay Area News Group reports, this poll is being used to determine which candidates qualify for next week’s Inside California Politics debate, with 5% being the cutoff. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan just ekes by with 5.4%.
That means that former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond have all been disqualified from the debate.
The same three, along with Becerra, were all excluded from a planned debate at USC in late March based on their polling and fundraising numbers, but that debate ended up being canceled amid controversy over their exclusion. Critics of the methodology for qualifying for the debate noted that Mahan had been included, despite his low polling numbers, while the four candidates of color were all excluded.
Despite the new poll putting Hilton and Bianco in the lead, Democrats' worries of being shut out of the race entirely are starting to fade, given that Swalwell's voter base will now move to other candidates, and likely mostly to Steyer and Porter.
As the Chronicle reports today, at least one Sacramento-based political data expert is suggesting now that it's not inconceivable that both Republican candidates will get shut out once all the primary votes are in.
That expert, Paul Mitchell, has created an online "primary simulator" model which now finds that in 87% of scenarios, the primary will result in a Democrat vs. Republican race for governor. And it has Hilton and Steyer as the likeliest top two vote-getters in June. The model gives a 7.5% probability of Hilton and Bianco being the only two in the November race, and a 5.5% probability that it will be Steyer vs. Porter.
Mitchell tells the Chronicle that "the program really believes that the odds of two Republicans splitting the vote is more remote, almost nonexistent" now that Swalwell has dropped out of the equation.
Still to come will be the possibility of the lowest-polling candidates departing the race, though mail-in primary ballots are set to be sent out in less than three weeks.
Related: Candidates for Governor Attend Sacramento Forums, Say Swalwell Exit Signals Fresh Start
Top image: Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter attend "Our Climate Future: A Forum with California's Next Governor" on January 28, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Matei Horvath/Getty Images for California Environmental Voters)
