Turnout was slightly down in the 2024 presidential election, which some Kamala Harris supporters have blamed for her loss. But a new analysis finds that even if turnout had been higher, Harris still would have lost the race.

Most people have moved on from Kamala Harris’s loss to Donald Trump in last November’s election, and are now focused on the fights we need to have against Trump in the present. But it’s some people’s job to not move on, and to perform an autopsy on why Harris lost. One popular theory is the Democratic turnout was down compared to what Joe Biden got in 2020. VP candidate Tim Walz himself backed this up in a speech last month, saying “There were enough people that said, on issues that were very divisive, there’s no difference between the candidates, they’re the same, and they stayed home.”

Indeed the race was close, and turnout was down slightly compared to the 2020 election. But a New York Times analysis published today says that Harris still would have lost if more people voted, citing a just-published set of voter statistics from the Pew Research Center.

“A relatively small share of voters switched which party’s candidate they supported,” The Pew Research Center found. “In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among those who voted for him in 2020. He also held an edge over Harris among voters who did not vote four years earlier – a group that was considerably more diverse than those who voted in both elections.”

The key finding is that a contingent of younger and non-white voters, who are not reliable voters, went by and large for Trump — and this upends the long-held belief that higher turnout, especially among these younger voters, tends to benefit Democrats.

And a separate New York Times report also published today notes that Trump was able to repeat with a larger coalition of his 2020 voters then the Democrats were able to do with theirs. “A larger share of voters who supported Mr Trump in the 2020 election — 85 percent — showed up to vote for him again in 2024,” that Times analysis found. “Ms Harris earned the support of just 79 percent of former President Joseph R Biden’s 2020 voters.”

There were a small number of party-switchers, but again, Trump benefited more among these votes than Harris did. According to the Times, a full 5% of 2020 Biden voters flipped to Trump, but only 3% of 2020 Trump voters flipped to Harris.

This may indicate that Harris’s emphasis on attracting disaffected Republicans along the lines of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger-types did not have broad appeal among conservatives, and may have been a wasted effort. But at the same time, Trump may have already blown whatever gains he made among minority and infrequent voters, and any political pundit or consultant reactions to the 2024 election will likely not be applicable to 2028 — if we make it that far.

Related: Kamala Harris Said to Be Weighing 2028 Presidential Run Against Bid for California Governor [SFist]

Image: LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 06: Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the State of the People POWER Tour opening ceremony on June 6, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. The ten city State of the People POWER Tour is a national campaign aimed at ‘uniting Black communities through healing, direct relief, and power building.’ (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)