According to the latest smoke forecast, while fires may get scarier to our north — and while the East Bay hills are under Red Flag Warnings too — the smoke situation in San Francisco will get worse before it gets better.
The latest smoke model from the National Weather Service shows our current, red and orange air quality turning purple or hazardous by late Thursday night, as smoke from the August Complex, North Complex, and Glass fires descends over the Bay Area and swirls here for about 12 hours.
Starting to make your weekend plans? Here is the latest smoke model forecast starting 6 pm Thurs into Friday. Note smoke from all the fires will impact the region with some clearing along the Sonoma coast by Fri afternoon. #GlassFire #CAwx #RedFlagWarning pic.twitter.com/r5DsiqSjHH— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) October 1, 2020
By mid-afternoon on Friday, the smoke appears to pushing further inland, and the Sonoma and Marin coasts, followed by San Francisco, end up with clearer air as the winds out of the northwest push the smoke out — and hopefully don't exacerbate the fires more than can be handled by firefighters.
According to PurpleAir, air quality has already gotten bad in multiple parts of the city — even though the Apple Weather app still has our AQI at 119 or "unhealthy for sensitive groups." That may be a few hours behind if you look at this:
And as you can see above, the AQI numbers in the East Bay are already worsening in the red levels.
Stay inside with windows closed! I know this sucks when it's warm out!
At least in San Francisco, the temperature hasn't topped 90 (at least in my neighborhood) as the smoke haze blocks out some of the sun's rays. And the smoke has also kept temperatures cooler than predicted up in Sonoma County as well.
Noon temps around Santa Rosa.— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) October 1, 2020
Given the amount of elevated smoke not only across Sonoma County but the entire region as a whole, temps are expected to be cooler than anticipated in Santa Rosa. Higher peaks just above the smoke still currently running warmer.#CaWx #Cafire pic.twitter.com/ZRDt0CI9rg
The Chronicle is reporting that rain may finally be in the forecast late next week or into the next, but it's far from certain. The long-range forecast gives us a 50-percent shot at precipitation between October 8 and 14.