In total, nearly 3.5 million Californians voted for Democratic candidates in Tuesday's primary. Compare that to 1,560,820 Republican voters who turned up at the polls, and you can see how Donald Trump may as well quit campaigning here today and just leave the state for good. As one KTVU commentator said during the election coverage Tuesday night in San Francisco, "Republicans always say they're going to keep campaigning in California past the primary, but they never do."
According to this count, 3,475,756 voters voted for Democrats, with 56 percent (1.9 million) voting for Hillary Clinton, who is now the presumptive nominee. It would take an extraordinarily large number of Bernie Sanders supporters to make the highly irrational choice of supporting Trump to make California even start to look winnable for Republicans, but this has, after all, been a blue state for a long time.
Voter registration and voter turnout were particularly high for this primary. As the LA Times reported a few days back, registrations in the state swelled in the final 45 days before the May 23 deadline to vote in the primary, with 646,220 people registering in a final rush, making a grand total of 17,915,053 registered voters in California the most ever heading into a primary.
5.1 million of those voters actually turned up at the polls (or voted by mail), meaning that turnout was at 28.5 percent up from the 25 percent who came out for the June 2014 primary, according to this report by the Public Policy Institute of California.
The recent high water mark for California voter turnout was the 2008 general election when 62.5 percent got out the vote out of 22 million people registered, and if that happens again with the same number of registered voters, and the same basic percentages voting Democratic and Republican (61 and 37 percent), we're looking at about 8.4 million likely votes for Hillary in November, up from the 8.3 million who voted for Obama eight years ago.
FiveThirtyEight has this interactive tool to show how varying voter turnout of different demographics could swing the election in different ways. But they currently predict Democrats will represent 60.8 percent of the California vote in November, with Clinton beating Trump handily.
But, FiveThirtyEight also just had a chat amongst its analysts discussing how Trump is likely to screw up everything that political scientists tend to assume about how people vote and how elections work, so there's that.
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