Rep. Adam Schiff has a slight 16%-13% lead over Rep. Katie Porter in the Senate election that’s still nearly a year away, but the bigger news may be that nearly 40% of California voters are still totally undecided on the race.
It was welcome news to the three Democratic candidates running in the Democratic Party royal rumble for the late Dianne Feinstein’s former Senate seat when Gavin Newsom appointee Laphonza Butler announced last month that she would not run for the seat permanently, and would simply be an interim senator. So we now pretty much have our field set, and a new poll shows SoCal congressional representative Adam Schiff slightly in the lead, but with other SoCal rep Katie Porter just a few points behind him, according to KRON4.
CALIFORNIA POLL with @CaliforniaICP— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 17, 2023
2024 US Senate Primary
Schiff (D) 16%
Porter (D) 13%
Garvey (R) 10%
Lee (D) 9%
Bradley (R) 3%
Pascucci (D) 2%
Early (R) 2%
Reese (D) 2%
Reiss (R) 1%
Someone else 2%
39% undecidedhttps://t.co/KiwQDdYrE6 pic.twitter.com/HffE0vhDV5
The results of this Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media are seen above, but what really jumps out is that Undecided has a far larger share of the vote than any candidate. Schiff tops the list with 16%, Porter is at 13%, Republican candidate and former L.A. Dodger Steve Garvey is at 10%, and East Bay rep Barbara Lee is at 9%.
But 39% of voters are still undecided.
These numbers have to be a disappointment for Garvey, who surely expected to do better solely on name recognition, and for Lee, who’s had a distinguished career in the House for more than 25 years. But those four candidates are only separated by seven percentage points, and there is plenty of undecided vote still out there for anyone to add substantially to their margin.
The primary vote for the seat is on March 5, 2024, and the top two candidates will then move on to face off in the November 5, 2024 general election.
According to the latest fundraising numbers, Schiff has the largest war chest in campaign contributions, according to CalMatters. Schiff has raised $21.5 million this year, Porter has raised $11 million, and Lee $3.2 million. But Porter has also been able to transfer another $11 million from her congressional campaign, nearly bringing her even with Schiff.
Images: (Left) United States House of Representatives Office of Photography, (Right) Porter.house.gov