The state released its updated metrics for the Blueprint for a Safer Economy, and both San Francisco and Los Angeles counties look poised to move into "Yellow" status by next week, along with one other Bay Area county.
San Francisco has qualified for "Yellow" status under two of the state's metrics for about a month now, but as of this week it has an adjusted adjusted rate of 1.8 COVID cases per 100,000 residents, with 2 cases being the threshold now that the state has administered over 4 million vaccine doses. It's seemed like we've been here before — on April 6 we were right on the threshold with 2.0 cases per 100,000 residents — but at the time, the "Yellow" threshold was 1 case per 100,000 because of the vaccination tier. Hospitalizations have also plateaued and/or ticked up in recent weeks, which may or may not be a cause for concern.
Assuming the testing numbers stay the same — and that SF continues to have a seven-day test-positivity rate of 0.8% — we should most certainly enter the "Yellow" tier next week. Marin County, which barely missed "Yellow" status last week, will also probably reach it along with SF next week — and the adjusted case rate per 100,000 in Marin is currently 1.5, with a test-positivity rate 0.5%.
Los Angeles County will also qualify if things stay steady, with a seven-day average of 1.9 cases per 100,000 residents, and a test-positivity rate of 0.9%. As Deadline notes, L.A. has also qualified under two out of three metrics for several weeks.
As SFist has reported previously, not a ton will change in terms of businesses opening unless the City of San Francisco's Department of Public Health decides to allow bars back open indoors without food. Under the state's "Yellow" tier guidance, most businesses, including bars, are allowed to be open indoors with restrictions.
Gyms can open to 50% capacity in the "Yellow" tier, per the state, or up to 75% capacity if they require everyone to show proof of vaccination. The same goes for movie theaters. Live theater still remains closed under the state's guidance, but as Governor Newsom announced earlier this month, that will all presumably change on June 15.
As of Tuesday, the CDC announced that it was changing its guidance about mask-wearing outdoors, and saying that vaccinated people should feel free to take masks off at outdoor restaurants and bars — but unvaccinated people still need to be more cautious. San Francisco has yet to weigh in on what the rules will look like here regarding masks and, say, walking down the street. At present, it's still considered a requirement and most people are doing it out of respect.
Also as of Tuesday, San Francisco reached nearly 70% of residents over 16 who have received at least one vaccine shot. 532,773 residents have received at least one vaccine shot, and 346,000 have completed their two shots or received the one-dose J&J vaccine.
Statewide, the test-positivity rate is 1.5%, and the seven-day average of cases is 4.7 per 100,000 residents, which is the lowest in the continental U.S.