With the news that rents in San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland all went down last month, many of us briefly allowed a previously forbidden thought to flicker across our minds: Could the decline continue, making future San Francisco affordable? Well, as Curbed reports, it's probably best to forget all about that — the smart money thinks that rents in San Francisco are likely never going down in any real or sustained way and, indeed, historically, they never really have.
"I’m in the camp that says [a decline] is probably not going to happen," VP of property management software company AppFolio Nat Kunes explained to Curbed. "Even with supply leveling out, you’re more likely going to see just years of small growth: four percent, two percent. But probably never a serious decline. It's just faster to add jobs than housing."
The bummer of a conversation was brought about by AppFolio's latest report, which claims that even though the rate at which rents are rising in San Francisco may be declining, rents themselves will continue to increase. "A year ago, Bay Area metros had three of the top five rent-growth rates in the nation," the report explains. "But the double-digit figures were unsustainable. Still, the 4% average rent growth in San Francisco so far this year and the 3.7% forecasted for 2016 as a whole is strong. With 2016 job growth forecast at 3.3%, demand should pick up."
Got that? Demand for housing, and consequently rent, is expected to continue to increase next year. While not exactly a shocker, the prediction does succeed in stamping out the ember of housing hope that had somehow managed to spark in my heart (despite my best cynical efforts).