After a wet January and wet early February, the Bay Area settled into a familiar early spring that often graces us in February, with beach days aplenty and some really pretty sunsets along the way. But though the "Godzilla El Niño" has turned out to be more Gremlin-sized, so far, it ain't over until we get through March and April, and there could be a fair bit more rain to come. That all starts with a sprinkling due on our shores by late Wednesday and into Thursday, followed by a heavier system that could bring as much as a half inch of rain over the weekend, as the Chron and National Weather Service report.
Before that, we have a few more balmy, 70-degree days ahead, so take it in while you can.
Optimists are still gunning for a "Miracle March," perhaps like one we had in 2006, which is the last time that six inches of rain fell in the course of the month. Average rainfall for the month is three inches, but more than that would help our rainfall totals recover at least to average levels we are currently three inches short of average, or at 82 percent, with the Sierra snowpack at about 88 percent. (Compare that to late January, when the snowpack hit 115 percent of normal.)
Meteorologists have cautioned that we shouldn't write off this El Niño just yet, and that February lulls are common. But so far, most of the pattern's typical rainfall have gone to the north of us, drenching the Pacific Northwest.
In order for the drought to be called over, state reservoir levels need to be at 90 percent of capacity, and/or runoff forecasts for the state's water year, which ends in September, would need to get to 110 percent of average.