Though it's not likely, Democrats in California run the risk of splitting their votes in the June primary and getting locked out of the November election, so some are arguing for being strategic with your vote.
A vote for Matt Mahan or Katie Porter might, at this point, be a throwaway vote in the June 2 primary unless one or the other rises suddenly in the polls to overtake Tom Steyer or Xavier Becerra. Becerra, who's now the subject of some aggressive attack ads, has been on a quick rise in the last month, overtaking Steyer by six percentage points in the latest poll.
And so, some Democrats online are pushing for a strategy of withholding their votes until Election Day or just before it, and voting for whichever Democrat in the race is polling at the top in three weeks time — because, who knows, some of those attacks on Becerra may stick, and things could shift once more.
As Cal Matters reports, the push for voting late and coalescing around the lead candidate isn't coming from any official party channels, but through social media, where a post from April 30 falsely attributed the strategy to popular Democratic influencer Heather Cox Richardson.
And some, including political consultant Paul Mitchell, say it's a silly idea because voter turnout — by early voting, or whathaveyou — is the most important thing, and actually organizing a campaign to accomplish this "wait until the last minute" strategy is nearly impossible at this point.
"I think people vote for whoever they were going to vote for anyway," Mitchell tells Cal Matters.
Still, the vote-splitting issue remains a worrisome one in many Democrats' minds, with Becerra having edged out Steyer as the frontrunner in a poll released Monday. That poll, from Kreate Strategies, surveyed 900 likely voters, and found Republican Steve Hilton taking 22% of the vote, with Becerra at 20%, Steyer at 14%, and the second Republican Chad Bianco nipping at Steyer's heels at 13%. Porter remains below 10% despite a recent ad push, and Mahan is tied with her at 9%.
Mitchell created this website to track the week-by-week shifts in the gubernatorial primary, based on polling data, which runs thousands of different scenarios to predict who the top two vote-getters will be. Since mid-April, after Swalwell dropped out of the race, his model has been solidly predicting that the primary will result in one Republican and one Democrat on top — currently, the model has the probability of that at a comforting 95.8%, up from 87% a month ago.
Hilton is all but guaranteed to be one of the two top candidates — the model puts the probability at 99.7% — with Xavier Becerra having a 60% chance, as of this week, of being on the November ballot alongside him.
Steyer's chances are now at 34.9%, according to Mitchell's model, with Bianco far behind at a distant fourth, at 4.2%. Porter's probability of making the top two? 1.2%.
Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta have been loudly discouraging voters from paying attention to this social media campaign — with Bonta suggesting that it is "disinformation" and was "potentially unlawful," per Cal Matters. The message from Democratic leaders is vote now, vote as soon as you can, and make sure that you vote.
Still, you might want to back whoever looks like a winner, as opposed to who you'd prefer, just to be safe.
Top image: California gubernatorial candidates former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), businessman Tom Steyer, businessman Steve Hilton, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra look on during a CNN California Governor Primary Debate at East Los Angeles College on May 05, 2026 in Monterey Park, California. CNN hosted a debate with seven of the top contenders in the race for California Governor. The debate was moderated by CNN anchors Kaitlan Collins and Elex Michaelson. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
