While doomsayers have believed there was no end in sight to the white-hot home sale market in San Francisco, at least at the luxury end of the spectrum, the market appears to finally be cooling. New figures from Paragon Real Estate Group, just published on Curbed, show that over the last three months, the supply of properties on the market at the high end defined as single-family homes north of $2 million, and condos/TICs priced above $1.5 million has jumped dramatically, officially creating a buyer's market for the first time in several years.
Sadly, though, for lower and mid-priced homes, things "have continued to remain solidly in 'seller's market territory,'" says Paragon.
The cause for the shift is partly the completion of a crop of new luxury condo units downtown that have been under construction, which coincided in late summer with the volatility in the stock market and increasingly loud chatter about an imminent bubble pop/market correction. These factors have likely influenced affluent buyers who may want to wait until the new year to buy.
But Paragon also says "it’s certainly possible that sellers and listing agents have finally pushed the envelope on prices a little too far: San Francisco’s high prices have clearly motivated some buyers to look at options outside the city (which has helped pressurize the markets of other counties)."
They're quick to say, though, that this is hardly a "crash" at the high end, and "there are still high-end homes selling very quickly for very high prices amid competitive bidding." But the sheer number of listings on the market as of September and October, as illustrated in the graph above, has officially given buyers the edge.
Meanwhile, this crazy estate in Atherton just sold for $35 million, and a plot of land with a shack on it in Palo Alto could fetch $2 million. So there's that.