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December 22, 2006

The Warriors: On the Rebound

rebound.jpg

Hey, here's a couple of news flashes for you: on Wednesday night the Warriors won, on the road, by holding a fourth-quarter lead.

That's right, the team's road losing streak of eight games is over after a less-than-convincing 96-95 escape in Boston. Baron Davis carried the Warriors with 31 points and 8 assists, but the Warriors did everything they could to give the game back; it was really an assist from Celtics coach Doc Rivers that gave the Warriors the game. With 24 seconds remaining, timeouts in hand, down by one point, and with the ball, Rivers elected not to call a timeout. Instead, the Celtics ran the only play in their playbook: give it to Paul Pierce and hope for the best. Pierce is a great player, but everybody in the building knew he was going to get the ball, including the five Warriors on the court. They surrounded him and forced a jump ball with just 0.6 seconds left. Game over baby.

So that puts a tiny band-aid on the 1-3 road trip and slightly daubs the road bleeding this year (2-9), but it does nothing to address the Warriors number one problem: REBOUNDING!

It could be a whole new ball game for the Warriors if they'd quit with the little-man's complex and play some size to get rebounds. Graphic from Atarimuseum.com.

This team is getting killed on the boards and it's making every game against every opponent an uphill battle. The Warriors are 24th in the league in rebounding, pulling down a paltry 39.6 boards a game. With opponents averaging 46.3 rebounds per game (rpg), their rebounding differential is by far the worst in the league at -6.7. It's so bad, the next closest team to them in rebounding differential is the Milwaukee Bucks at -5.1. (Side note, the Bucks outribbied the Warriors by 10 boards and won the game when the two teams met earlier this month.) Last year, the Warriors were fifth in the league in boards, collecting 42.3 rpg. They still had an operating deficit, but it was only -2.2 rpg

It gets worse. In losses, the War's are getting out-glassed by almost 8 rips a game; in wins, by nearly 6 per. In December, opponents have averaged 8 boards more per game. Against the Houston Rockets on December 14 in the O-rena, a game they won at the buzzer, the Warriors were outboarded 53-33. Do you think if maybe they had a couple of extra possessions in that game by virtue of a few more rebounds, they mightn't have had to rely on a last-second jumper for the win? Ya' think? On their current road trip, the team has been outrebounded 200-162 and has not grabbed more rebounds than their opponents in a game yet. A 1-3 road trip and 4-7 record for the month are no coincidence.

In fact, the last time the Warriors outrebounded an opponent (44-43) was on December 12 at home against the Sacto Queens. Guess what? They won that game. In 27 games so far this season, the Warriors have been outrebounded in 19. They won the other eight.

The team obviously needs to rebound better, so what's the problem? The problem is not injuries or scheduling or bad luck. The problem is small-ball. There's no point in even looking at any other suspects.

It's not like the team doesn't have some bodies to put out there on the front line, it's just that coach Don Nelson's small-ball style is predicated on guards and shooting, lots and lots of guards shooting. Nothing else really matters, because in Nellie's scheme, the Warriors will overwhelm opponents with pace and volume, and ultimately outscore them.

Which of course brings us back to the crux of the issue: the viability of small-ball, in general and for this specific team. For the last three drafts, the Warriors have been attempting to stockpile big men. Andris Biedrins three years ago, Ike Diogu last year, and seven-footers Patrick O'Bryant and Kosta Perovic this year. That's in addition to first round biggies Adonal Foyle and Troy Murphy, who continue to languish on the W's roster. So there's some beef on the team, but it's hard to get rebounds from the bench. And it's hard to get rebounds with three 6'2" guards on the floor. Nellie's disdain for big men and rookies is well known, so why a team that drafted two big men this year and that has been collecting big men for the past three years would hire a small-ball coach continues to be exhibit one in the case against Chris Mullin and the current Warriors management. But that's a rant for another day.

In Nellie's current rotation, pretty much the entire rebounding burden falls on burgeoning star Biedrins. He's doing a great job, leading the team in boards with 9.4 rpg, almost double the next closest rebounder on the team. This is one of the reasons that talk about acquiring six-foot guard Allen Iverson was so ridiculous, especially those rumors that had Biedrins going to Philly as part of the deal. Diogu has been "benched" the last month with a sprained left ankle (which we contend is a just PR to give Nellie cover for burying Diogu in his doghouse -- and now it's Troy Murphy with the mysterious foot injury that's keeping him out of the lineup.) and O'Bryant has averaged only 8.8 minutes per game in the 8 games in which he's been allowed to play this year. With the team getting killed so badly on the boards, why not put POB in there for 20 minutes a game to get some rebounds. It's not like a long, wispy seven-footer can't take up space and get boards -- see Marcus Camby.

Lack of size on the court is also forcing the Warriors to play an inordinate amount of zone defense because they can't match up man-to-man with bigger teams. Small-ball is supposed to create matchup problems, but not for the team playing the small-ball. Zone D has its place in certain game spots and with certain temporary matchups, but the NBA is a man-D league. Teams cannot succeed in this league running a predominantly zone defense. Another statistical note here: the Warriors are averaging 105.8 points per game (ppg), third best in the league. But they're giving up 105.9 ppg, good for dead last. So do the math there . . . and tell us how the team can expect to win games with those kind of numbers.

So the Warriors are committed to small-ball, a strategy based on possessions. But you can't possess what you can't get, and right now the Warriors can't get rebounds or play defense. This makes it impossible to control the game late in the fourth quarter, which is when they've been losing most of their games. Something has to change, and that change is going to have to start on the clipboard -- as in ditch the small-ball. Get POB and Diogu some serious minutes and emphasize rebounding and ball control. Otherwise it will be tough for the Dubs to bounce back this year from their losing ways.


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