San Francisco extended its stay-at-home order indefinitely right before the new year, citing a worrisome climb in hospitalization numbers around the Bay Area. Sunday, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) revealed the Bay Area’s current ICU capacity is now at 8.4% — but, per regional health officials, at least the post-Thanksgiving surge appears to be losing traction.

According to a news release published today from the CDPH, the Bay Area must "remain under the [current stay-at-home order] until at least January 8" and could involuntarily be extended well past that date, should ICU capacity projections prove bad. (Spoiler alert: They likely will... because they’re already pretty bad.) As of right now, the only region in the state not under the mandated stay-at-home order is Northern California, which has an ICU capacity of 35.5%. By comparison, the Greater Sacramento region is sitting at 10.3% — while both Southern California and San Joaquin Valley are at 0.0%.

But respite might be coming as some health officials in the Bay Area as the record-breaking ballooning of COVID-19 from the Thanksgiving holiday begins to deflate.

“[...] we have seen some softening in the rate of rise in our cases,” Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said, just before Christmas, according to KPIX. Though positive, UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford added to the news outlet that it's not all too clear how long this "softening" of COVID-19 infections will last. Rutherford waxed we may not know for another week or more. And that's assuming "there [hasn't] been [any] damage done" by Christmas holiday travel New Year's Eve gatherings with members outside of people's immediate circle.

With the vaccine rollout going both slower and more clumsily than what was expected, social distancing and mask-wearing will exist as norms in 2021 for quite some time. Rutherford, too, notes that we'll be able to "extract ourselves" from the pandemic — or at least these massive COVID-19 surges — once a sizable portion of the population is vaccinated. (Many epidemiologists believe that successfully vaccinating between 50% to 90% of a population will yield herd immunity; the percentage, however, is directly tied to the R naught of any single pathogen.)

Currently, California has 2,391,261 confirmed cases of COVID-19 to date, an increase of over 391,000 cases since California became the first state in the country last week to pass the two million confirmed cases of the novel respiratory disease.

Related: San Francisco Extends Stay-at-Home Order Indefinitely Into January

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San Francisco Hits Record High In COVID Hospitalizations; Bay Area Adds 72 Seriously Ill Patients Overnight

Image: Courtesy of Getty Images via Tempura

San Francisco's contact tracing program has proven to be an effective tool in thwarting COVID-19 infections — but this winter's surge could push the initiative to its limits as staff might struggle to contend with a rush of new cases.

Like mask-wearing and social distancing, contact tracing is one of our most effective ways of mitigating future COVID-19 surges in lieu of a vaccine rollout. (The latter, thankfully, is expected to begin by mid-December — with the Bay Area still being in shutdown when the rollout starts.) In fact: SF has successfully reached some 80 percent of people who've tested positive for the novel disease. However, because of the recent spike in coronavirus infections, the City's contact tracing program is inching closer to a "breaking point" and might become overwhelmed with new cases.

As reported by KTVU, contact tracers are now handling “three and a half times” the number of cases than they were just a month ago. Even despite the SFDPH adding another 100 contact tracers to the City's already 200 employed ones — and San Francisco adopting a new mobile-data-assisted tracing platform — the program could become too strained in the coming weeks (or days).

"When the numbers get to be incredibly big, as [previously pointed out], and as each case says they have 20-25 contacts there is no way a force of even 300 people who are incredibly skilled is going to be able to keep up with that," said Dr. Susan Philip from San Francisco's Department of Public Health to the news outlet.

All things considered: Philip and other public health officials say it's not too late to make a noticeable impact in driving down the number of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 cases. And that requires people cutting down on the number of people they share space with — particularly during the next few weeks.

"One thing the public can do is limiting the number of close contacts that you have," said Philip. "Now is not the time to go into a large party and have 100 close contacts." (Any sort of large gathering or time spent with people outside your immediate circle or household is also now forbidden, per the regional stay-at-home order.)

It's worth mentioning as well that we've likely yet to see cases of COVID-19 contracted by traveling over the Thanksgiving holiday; the incubation time of the novel disease is somewhere between two and fourteen days — with hospitalizations usually occurring later on in the timeline for severe COVID-19 infections.

Wear a mask, only see people in your immediate circle... and try to talk some sense into any anti-vaxxers in your life. A quasi-normal spring and summer could well be right around the corner if we all do our part in safeguarding ourselves and others from coronavirus infections.

Related: San Francisco Rolls Out Virtual Assistant Tool To Help Improve Contact Tracing

Breed Announces New Stay-At-Home Orders for SF Ahead of State Mandate; Outdoor Dining to Cease Until January

Image: Signs posted in Dolores Park in San Francisco warning people about best practices during the Coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Dolores Park is usually full of people but it's currently sitting empty. (Courtesy of Getty Images via DutcherAerials)

UPDATE 2:30: The crews, according to a nearby commenter, appear to have dispersed now. Not sure what the "mysterious white powder" was, but we'll update as soon as we know more.

2:10: Both St. Francis Memorial Hospital and the post office at 900 Hyde have now been shut down. The San Francisco post office was evacuated this morning at around 11:35 a.m. when employees found a "mysterious white powder on their clothing," prompting them to walk to the nearby hospital's emergency room.

KRON has more:

San Francisco Department of Public Health spokeswoman Eileen Shields said the five employees were evaluated at the hospital and released around 1 p.m. The hospital was not evacuated, hospital spokeswoman Dee Mostofi said. The Office of Emergency Services is asking the public to avoid the area around Pine and Larkin streets. The post office remained shut down as of 1:15 p.m.

12:48: We're getting word that the emergency room at St. Francis Memorial Hospital (1400 Pine) has shut down today due to a hazmat situation.

According to KRON 4, "Five people at the hospital...have similar symptoms caused by an unknown substance."

The San Francisco Department of Public Health is currently investigating the incident. Fire spokeswoman Mindy Talmadge tells BCN/SFAppeal that fire crews are “testing a substance on somebody's clothing” at the hospital.

We'll update as soon as we know more.

Carlos Bar, one of the few watering holes in the Mission geared towards Latinos, closed its doors on June 30. Its alcohol license was suspended by the Department of Alcohol Beverage Control. Why? Mission Local reports: "According to Danielle Shafer, supervisor investigator with the Department of Alcohol Beverage ControlA six-month department investigation, which began 2009 and completed early 2010, found bar owner Carlos Gutierrez and his employees guilty of profit sharing - that is, hiring cocktail waitresses to pressure patrons into buying drinks at a higher rate than normal."

That is to say, waitresses tried bilking customers "between $5 and $10 more than the bar's standard prices," which they would then divvy between owner and waitress.

In fact, here's one Yelper who was apparently screwed over by a Carlos Bar waitress. Steven H. bemoans: "Is $8 worth it for a well vodka and tonic at 6pm on a weekday? Not at a dumpy bar I'd say. Carlos Club offers hostesses who are ready to take a drink order the minute you walk in the door, faster than your eyes can adjust to the dark interiors. I recommend getting the bottled beers because at least those prices are posted. But in general, I would not recommend the overpriced, underquality drinks here."

Although the bars owners, Carlos and Rosa Gutierrez, filed for due process when these allegations were revealed, the courts ruled against them.

Located at 3278 24th Street, the bar will remain closed "until a new application is filed and approved by city officials and the California Department of Alcohol Beverage Control." Until then, a new owner could step in and, God forbid, turn the local institution into, say, a steampunk-themed eclair shop. Or whatever obnoxious retail atrocity Valencia Street denizens find tragically adorable these days.

[Mission Local]

UPDATE: Strike is off! Ferry service is on. Chon reports: "Golden Gate Ferry service will run on its regular schedule [Friday], transit officials announced."

Those of you who rely on Golden Gate Ferry to get to and from work, take note: Friday (7/1) service won't be happening. "Golden Gate Ferry service won't operate Friday because of a strike called by the Inlandboatmen's Union," reports the Chronicle. "Officials with the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District, which manages the ferries, canceled service late this afternoon, just hours after the union announced plans for a one-day strike."

[Chron]

Maybe you haven't heard, but due to a snapped cable during yesterday's evening commute, the Bay Bridge is closed today. And possibly tomorrow. It's closed indefinitely. Anyway, 511 has a list of Bay Bridge alternatives.

BART: will run long trains tonight and end service at normal times. Will run longer trains all day on Wednesday, October 28, beginning at 4 am.

AC Transit For the Wednesday morning commute, AC Transit will run regular weekday service, however buses will detour to four East Bay BART stations so that passengers can continue to San Francisco on BART. 800 All Nighter service will will operate on its regular schedule, but will go over the San Mateo bridge with the last bus leaving at 4:00 am Wednesday morning. AC Transit will operate as close to schedule as possible, but the re-routing may cause some delays.

Alameda/Oakland Ferry: will run ferries every 30 minutes from 6 am - 8:45 pm on Wednesday, October 28.

Alameda Harbor Bay Ferry: will run regular schedule on Wednesday, October 28.

Golden Gate Transit (Ferries): will have one extra high capacity ferry from Larkspur after 7 am on Wednesday, October 28.

Golden Gate Transit (Buses): will continue normal service and operate as close to schedule as they possibly can, given projected traffic.

Vallejo Baylink Ferry / Bus: bus 200 will be re-routed over SR 37/San Rafael Bridge.

Muni: route 108 to Treasure Island is running normal service.
Amtrak and Capitol Corridor

Amtrak: will operate a shuttle between the San Francisco and Martinez Stations for Coast Starlight and California Zephyr passengers. Advises San Joaquin and Capitol Corridor passengers to connect with BART at Richmond.

Caltrans Bay Bridge Bike Shuttle Service canceled Wednesday, October 28. Consider taking BART and locking your bike at the BART stations, as trains are likely to be crowded.

After a snapped support cable struck three cars on the upper deck at around 5:45 p.m., the Bay Bridge was shut down in both directions this evening to check the structural integrity, according to ActionNewsSF.

SFGate reports:

CHP Officer Peter Van Eckhardt said what appeared to be a cable and a steel bracket fell from the eastern span's overhead steel support structure and onto the upper deck. The parts fell at about 5:30 p.m. Eckhardt said the passengers in one vehicle hit by the falling debris were shaken up but not injured.

Mercury News, however, says that one person has been injured.

Expect major delays. Check 511 for updates on traffic.

Update (7:45): Image of Bay Bridge overpass empty after tonight's closure went into effect. CHP is now diverting eastbound traffic onto Fourth Street. Also, Muni line 108 Treasure Island service has been suspended until further notice.

Update (8:08): The bridge will be closed for "at least 24 hours." Vehicles are backed up at the toll plaza. Nightmareish scene tonight, folks.

According to CBS 5 "[a] brush fire in Napa County has shut Hwy 29 at Hwy 121 in both directions."

First the Santa Cruz mountains, and now this? Way to kickoff fire season, God.

So why is (s)he punishing us? What hath you wrought?

According to KTVU--who interrupted Tyra, where some college girl was just about to freak out about a sex tape that ruined her life!--there has been a six-car pileup on the Golden Gate Bridge. It seems three lanes of traffic are blocked in the northbound direction. A Sig-alert has just been issued.

Traffic, of course, is backed up.

If you use the GG Bridge to get home, plan accordingly.

Update (4:26 p.m.): The Golden Gate Bridge has... re-opened. Completely. In both directions.

Update (3:54 p.m.): The entire bridge has been shut down, says Frank Sommerville. Also, someone is trapped inside one of the heavily damaged cars. Head-on collision is Sommerville guess. Yikes.

Oh, and if you need to head home tonight, folks, take the Bay Bridge, the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge, or hop on the ferry.