The cash-strapped BART system has revealed its ‘doomsday scenario’ of drastic service cuts if a November transit tax measure doesn’t pass, with as many as 15 stations potentially closing, and service stopping at 9 pm every night.

BART’s social media accounts are talking a big game today about the throngs of Super Bowl riders they’re getting this week, which are indeed likely to set or break ridership records for what is normally a humdrum first full weekend of February. But these numbers are just a synthetic sugar high, because we do not have the Super Bowl in town every weekend, and rarely will these numbers be matched.

That boasting will end the day after the Super Bowl, and then BART will speak in ways intended to strike fear into riders’ hearts. In fact, they already have. The Chronicle reports that BART gave an update on its “fiscal cliff’/”doomsday scenario” financial panic, and in it the Chron notes that the transit agency may be forced to permanently close as many as 15 BART stations in 2027.

That is, unless voters approved their half-cent sales tax ballot measure in four Bay Area counties, which would additionally be a full one-cent sales tax in San Francisco County. That ballot measure is up for a vote on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and it will appear on the ballots in San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties.

There are other even more dire cutbacks than the station closures. As KRON4 points out, BART says they may have to stop train service at 9 pm every night, and might not begin weekend morning service until 8 am.  

The Chronicle has some maps of which stations BART says they might close. It’s a two-phase approach.

In January of 2027, the Antioch line would lose its Orinda, North Concord/Martinez, and Pittsburgh Center stations. Oakland International Airport, South Hayward, and Warm Springs/South Fremont would all be axed from the Berryessa line. The Dublin/Pleasanton line would lose its Castro Valley and West Dublin/Pleasanton stations, and the SFO line would lose the Colma and South San Francisco stations.

And that’s just Phase One. Come July 2027, they’d further shut down the Pittsburg/Baypoint and Antioch stations (that line would then just end at Concord, like it did in the early 90s), and the Dublin/Pleasanton-bound Blue Line would just cease to exist — with Orange Line service ending at Bay Fair. On the SFO line, San Bruno and Millbrare stations would also close, which means the BART would just go straight from Daly City station to SFO, with no stops between.

These are, for now, just proposals that the BART Board of Directors will discuss in an upcoming workshop.

“What we’ll discuss in our board workshop next week is not only the monumental scale of what’s in front of us but the incredibly high degree of uncertainty,” BART Board member Edward Wright told the Chronicle.

That meeting is Thursday, February 12, at 9 am, and will be livestreamed.

Related: That Half-Cent Sales Tax To Save Public Transit From ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Will Indeed Be on the November 2026 Ballot [SFist]

Image: Pi.1415926535 via Wikimedia Commons

After a series of service cuts this year, the SF Municipal Transit Agency is taking the axe to every other one of its departments across the board, which could mean more bus shelters in disrepair, and repair backlogs on vehicles.

Muni riders have already felt the pain of service cuts because of the agency’s projected $322 million deficit that it will be looking at come the beginning of the city’s next fiscal year. The SF Municipal Transit Agency (SFMTA) that runs Muni has already cut the mid-day frequency on some of the city’s most popular bus lines, and five bus lines had their routes trimmed in June. The SFMTA has already cut bus service, and they say they’re determined to not do so again.

But even those service cuts are “a couple million here, a couple million there,” a drop in the bucket of that projected $322 million deficit. So today’s Chronicle reports that the SFMTA is now ordering 5%-7% cuts across the board in all departments, in hopes of avoiding the so-called "fiscal cliff” that would lead to far more drastic service cuts and layoffs.

“We’re not touching routes or headways,” SFMTA CFO Bree Mawhorter told the Chronicle. “But we might have to target other aspects of the service. Tires might get rotated every six months instead of every three. Which means more wear and tear on the tires. Which might lead to tire replacement costs over the long term.”

That’s one example of the maintenance cuts that may well be looming, and the Chron indicates there could be hiring freezes or possible even layoffs among janitors, mechanics, and maintenance workers. For you the rider, that could mean long delays on bus shelter repairs, repairs to vehicles, or those fancy new digital arrival-time signs more frequently being busted up and worthless.

And in a sense, many of these problems would effectively manifest as service cuts. If there’s a backlog on vehicle repairs, that would likely mean fewer vehicles in service.

State Senator Scott Wiener is plotting some sort of regional transit ballot tax measure for the 2026 ballot that would bolster the coffers of the struggling Muni, BART, and other transit agencies. And the Chronicle adds that “Daniel Lurie is planning a separate local revenue measure to support Muni."

But neither is guaranteed to pass, and frankly, neither is even guaranteed to make the ballot. Wiener’s ballot measure is particularly likely to be a longshot, because it would be a regional, multi-county ballot measure. And it seems unlikely that people in the wealthy Silicon Valley enclaves of San Mateo County are keen to be taxed more to save government public transportation agencies.

Even if both measures should pass, that revenue does not start rolling in until 2027. And even with that extra revenue, the SFMTA still projects a $100 million deficit.

So any bus lines slashed or Muni jobs cut are probably not coming back, even if SFMTA does get some more money from those proposed bailout ballot measures.

Related: Muni Service Cuts Kick In Saturday, Five Bus Lines Getting Their Routes Trimmed [SFist]

Image: SFMTA

With the City of Oakland drowning in about $129 million in red ink, Oakland City Council voted to approve a plan to cut police overtime, close a few fire stations, and eliminate some arts programs in hopes of closing the deficit.

The recalled Sheng Thao is no longer the Mayor of Oakland, and maybe she got out while the getting was good. New mayor Nikki Fortunato Bas (who will only be in office for about three weeks) spent her first day on the job still performing her City Council President duties. And KTVU reports that one of those duties was voting to approve a series of budget cuts in hopes of trimming Oakland’s $129 million budget deficit.    

Per Oaklandside, the council approved $100 million in budget cuts by a 5-1 vote. “There are no easy answers here, and most of what’s before us is really hard to swallow,” Bas said at the meeting.

The cuts are what was expected, having been telegraphed more than a week ago, and they come in two phases. Phase One is cutting nearly $25 million in police overtime, “browning out” two fire stations (which means reducing the number of shifts worked at those stations, not closing them entirely), and slashing a significant number of arts programs. Phase Two browns out four more fire engine companies, and calls for the layoffs of more than 90 city workers.

The Fire Department was particularly apoplectic.

"I don't understand the fiscal decision to close a third of the fire department and the idea that that will be a sustainable city," IAFF Local vice president Captain Seth Olyer said before the vote. "We're talking about people's lives. We're talking about members' lives. We're talking about everyone out here who's talked about how important services are to them."

Some of those Fire Department cuts could be avoided if the stalled sale of the Oakland Coliseum goes through. So things can change here, and maybe they will. As Oaklandside points out, four of the five councilmembers who voted for the cuts will be out of office a month from now, and a largely new City Council will take over. So they may seek an entirely different pathway out of this mess.

Related: Oakland City Council Weighing Drastic Cuts as $130 Million Deficit Looms [SFist]

Image: View of Oakland City Hall from 14th Street on a sunny winter day. (Getty Images)

Layoffs, pay cuts, and reductions to the police and fire departments are all on the table in Oakland, as the City Council looks for ways to slash the city's budget as they confront a deficit of nearly $130 million.

The City of Oakland must pick their poison, as KRON4 reports the city is now looking at a $129 million deficit next year. An Oakland City Council budget committee held a meeting on Monday, and nearly 100 angry residents showed up to complain about all of the devastating potential cuts that are on the table, knowing that inevitably, some of these cuts are going to have to happen.

“I want to remind ourselves that as a City Council and as a city, we prioritize community safety as well as housing security and the essential services that keep our city healthy and clean, as well as collecting every dollar that is owed to us,” Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas said at Monday’s meeting. “And today, given our financial situation, we’re discussing a back-to-basics approach to both our budget and city services.”

KRON4 breaks down the details of the proposed cuts, which are just proposed, as no final decisions have been made yet. They come in two phases. The first phase is cutting nearly $200 million in city staffing and police overtime, and the “browning out” of two fire stations (that means not closing the stations, but reducing the number of shifts worked at them). The second phase browns out four additional fire engine companies, hopes to claw back some financial benefits already given to certain labor unions, and calls for about 100 layoffs of city workers.

"It definitely puts people on edge," city IT worker and IFPTE Local 2 vice president Julian Ware told KPIX. "Further compounded when you think, this is a holiday season. You're talking about two or three weeks out for Christmas."

"It really puts people on edge because it's sort of that uncertainty," he added. "What should I be doing right now? Should I be applying for a job somewhere else?"

Mind you, this all comes in the wake of the Sheng Thao recall, which has left Oakland sort of rudderless and without a mayor right now. Thao is mayor pretty much in name only right now — she’s not really showing any leadership or voice on the budget situation anymore, and she’ll be officially in office only one more week.

Unsurprisingly, Thao’s would-be replacements are running towards TV cameras hoping to bolster their visibility during the budget crisis.

"It's actually very sad. It just breaks my heart to see the budget crisis that we're going through right now," mayoral candidate Renia Webb told KPIX. “It doesn't have to be that way." (Webb was once Thao’s chief of staff when she was an Oakland City Councilmember, but has since turned on Thao once the FBI raids and corruption allegations hit.)

As mentioned, Thao remains mayor until December 17th, when the City Council will officially declare the office vacant. That sets off a very murky line of succession. The City Council President should automatically fill the role, but that president Nikki Fortunato Bas just won a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. So once Fortunato Bas is elevated, the job will then temporarily go to whoever is elected president of the City Council in January, in a chaotic process that may lead to Oakland having four different mayors in four months by the time a special election to replace Thao is held on April 15, 2025.

Oh, and that special election will cost the city $5 million, further adding to the city’s deficit.

Related: Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao Is Reportedly Using an SUV the City Hasn't Paid For [SFist]

Image: Oakland, California, United States - April 26, 2017: Oakland City Hall Oakland City Hall, an architectural landmark in downtown Oakland, California. The historic building showcases Beaux-Arts design with its grand façade, elegant columns, and a distinctive three-tiered structure topped by a domed roof. Surrounded by the vibrant cityscape, it stands as a symbol of civic pride and a hub of local government activities.

Mayor London Breed’s final fiscal update of her tenure in office shows a budget deficit that’s nearly $100 million higher than it was projected to be just four months ago, and the Trump administration seems likely to yank some already-promised federal funding.  

It is probably not Mayor London Breed’s fault that the City and County of San Francisco yo-yoed back into deficit times coming out of the pandemic. Her sweeping COVID shutdowns had the desired effect of giving San Francisco an exceptionally low COVID death rate. But we still have the lingering hangovers of very high office vacancy (which is not just a San Francisco thing, people), and troubles in the tourism industry that are making for much lower tax revenue. Meanwhile, there are a series of city employee pay raises and business tax cuts that were largely approved by voters.      

The Chronicle reported Tuesday that the city’s budget deficit has now swelled to $876 million. Just four months ago, KQED projected the deficit was around $789 million, so that’s an additional $87 million in red ink compared to what we last knew. And it’s going to be Daniel Lurie’s problem now, as he’ll be sworn in as mayor in a little over a month.

“It’s hard. I don’t envy his challenge,” former city controller Ed Harrington told the Chronicle. “It’s like turning a battleship or an aircraft carrier.”

So what’s Lurie going to do to balance the budget, if that’s even possible? Before he’s even left the gate, he said on Twitter Monday that he would not eliminate the cable cars, which the SFMTA has said they were considering doing to save money.  

But Lurie was a little less specific on Tuesday in a statement he issued after the $876 million figure became public.

“The budget deficit is a crisis that we must face head-on, and it will require us to make difficult decisions,” Lurie said in that statement. “We can’t simply cut our way out of this nor can we balance the budget on the backs of working people. We need to stop spending more than we can afford while prioritizing investments that are critical to a full economic recovery and the maintenance of essential services. Beyond living within our means, fostering a diverse and growing economy is critical to eliminating chronic budget deficits. This moment requires all of us to work together to advance the best interests of San Franciscans.”

One reason the deficit is larger than anticipated, as the Chronicle points out, is that the city spent $244 in pandemic response costs that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said they would reimburse us for. They have not reimbursed that yet! With Trump coming into office with a Republican-controlled Congress, it seems unlikely we will ever get those funds reimbursed — though somebody could hurry up and maybe yank that money in the next six weeks.

As NBC Bay Area notes, “San Francisco’s budget deficit could grow to $1 billion if the new administration withholds that federal funding.”

Yes, Daniel Lurie is a wealthy man, but that’s family wealth money. Lurie is rich, but he’s never run a business, so he would not have the kind of deficit-cutting bona fides of a Michael Bloomberg type. Lurie may have some idea of how he’s going to get San Francisco out of an $876 million hole, but he’s never done anything remotely resembling actually getting out of an $876 million hole. So we'll see.

Related: Supervisors Up In Arms Over Breed’s Massive Budget Cuts to Community Ambassador Program [SFist]

Image: Patrick Perkins via Unsplash

A combination of inflation, high interest rates, and tech layoffs have some economists worried that a nasty California recession is brewing, though the downturn may be limited to commercial real estate landlords and people who made bank during the pandemic.

You’re currently seeing a nonstop loop of San Francisco “doom loop” articles in the Chronicle, which seems odd, because San Francisco's unemployment rate is currently at a terrifically low 2.9%. I’m pretty sure things were way worse when the pandemic had the city’s unemployment rate higher than 12%! Meanwhile the New York Times, which loves to bash the SF Bay Area when they have a chance, just published its own kind of California “doom loop” analysis over of the national factors of inflation, high interest rates, and the stock market downturn, combined with California variables like tech layoffs and economic fallout from this winter’s storms.

Mind you, California is still by many accounts the fourth largest economy in the world, statewide unemployment is just 4.3%, and I can think of 49 other U.S. states that would love to be the economic powerhouse that is California. But it’s hardly reassuring that the state is looking at a deficit again, of $22.5 billion. That’s not historically so bad (Governor Gray Davis ran a $38 billion deficit in 2003, a time when the state’s GDP is far smaller, and we all survived). But it’s still a shock when you said you had a $108 billion surplus a year or so prior, highlighting the risks of California's boom-and-bust economic cycles — Newsom referred to the charts of deficit and surplus as looking like "an EKG."

“The tech sector is the workhorse of the state’s economy, it’s the backbone,” Loyola Marymount University economics professor Sung Won Sohn told the Times. “These are high earners who might not be able to carry the state as much as they did in the past.”

You’re aware there have been massive tech layoffs, though that still seems contained to companies that made bank during the pandemic and grew way too much. Though the Times also points out a 36% global decline in venture capital investment, which hits California disproportionately hard, and the Times adds that information sector employment has “declined by more than 16,000 from November to February.”

There are other troubling factors outside the tech industry. Disney had 7,000 layoffs in February, which is one example of how Hollywood is being affected. The Times also adds that “California’s robust supply chain, which drives nearly a third of the state’s economy, has continued to buckle under stresses from the pandemic and an ongoing labor fight between longshoremen and port operators up and down the West Coast." They add that “Cargo processing at the Port of Los Angeles, a key entry point for shipments from Asia, was down 43 percent in February, compared with the year before.”

Thus far, the layoffs are not spreading beyond the tech industry, and the financial pain seems to be most severe for the commercial real estate industry. Those sectors have lived lavishly for about the last decade, so a correction is not out of the ordinary, and plenty of us have had it tougher than them. But the Times does add that UCLA economic forecasters have considered several scenarios wherein the financial pain spreads beyond tech and commercial real estate.

And frankly, it’s kind of encouraging that the Times concludes “Regardless of which scenario pans out, California’s economy is likely to be better off than the national one.”

Related: Study Ranks San Francisco Dead Last In U.S. for Downtown Economic Recoveries [SFist]

Image: First Republic Bank via Yelp

It's kinda like on the "the Wire" when the outgoing Mayor decided to get revenge on the guy who beat him in the Mayoral Race by not telling anyone that the educational system was majorly in debt. So maybe Gavin didn't tell anyone beforehand so he can stick it to the guy who replaced him. Oh wait, Gavin won. So maybe Gavin didn't announce it for fear if he told everyone before the election he might have lost to Grasshopper.

The reason for the debt is that we allegedly hired too many new people, mainly cops and nurses plus gave them all whopping raises. Then there's the fact that a large part of the revenue came from property transfer taxes and with the housing marketing in a mess, there goes that money.

So Gavin has announced that he wants hiring freezes and wants each department head whose funds come from the city's general fund to come up with a proposal to trim some fat by 13%. Letting go of people is not an option in that all those people who were hired were kind of necessary, or at least it looks really, really bad if you let go a bunch of nurses and cops.

The good news: we've faced deficits before and we beat them before and we can beat them again. The bad news: what with all those ballot initiatives locking in money to certain city services, there's not a lot of fat out there to trim.