By Daisy Barringer

Everyone understands the gravity of the situation come Sunday. The 49ers must beat Arizona in order to win the NFC West. In addition, Minnesota must beat Green Bay in order for the 49ers to clinch the No. 2 NFC seed and earn a bye week. Considering the number of injuries — especially Justin Smith and his partial tear of his left triceps tendon — the week off could be crucial for the Niners. Alas, that is totally out of their hands. All they can do now is try to beat the Cardinals and win the West.

Despite the debacle that was the 49ers performance last week, they actually still opened as 16 ½ point favorites over the Cardinals. Personally, I think that's ridiculous and if I were a betting woman (which I'm not), I'd take Arizona. That being said, I do feel confident that the 49ers can win this game. And based on their Win-Win-Loss pattern all season, they will. Also doesn't hurt that Arizona kind of sucks.

Let's take a look at how the 49ers are going to pull this one off:

The Good

  • The Cardinals are 5-10. They have zero motivation to win this game except their hatred of the Niners. They're not going to throw the game in order to secure a better draft pick, but… they probably should.
  • Home-field advantage. Someone (me) has to drive home from Tahoe Sunday morning and then back up to Tahoe on Monday morning just so she doesn't miss the game, but this isn't about me (yes it is). This game means something to fans, so I expect them to show up and get loud.
  • The Niners tend to bounce back with vehemence after humiliating losses. I expect them to come out ferocious and fighting. I don't know why they don't ALWAYS do this, but nonetheless, I think they'll score fast and first and set the tempo for the game.
  • QB Brian Hoyer is starting for the Cards—his first professional start. Arizona has used FOUR different starting QBs this season. He has only 62 career pass attempts. Even with Justin Smith out, I think our defense is going to hand his ass to him. Should be fun to watch.
  • Frank Gore. The Niners just need to give Gore the ball. Nothing fancy. Just let him run the ball and keep the offense on the field long enough for our defense to get some rest.


The Bad

  • Justin Smith is out. This is bad news for the entire defense as we witnessed last Sunday, but it's especially bad news for Aldon Smith who needs 3.5 sacks to break Michael Strahan's single-season NFL record (22.5 sacks). Unfortunately, most of Aldon's sacks come because of help from Justin Smith. Don't look for him to break the record. If he gets more than even one sack, I'll be surprised. (Pleasantly so, obvi.)
  • Vernon Davis practiced on Thursday for the first time since sustaining a concussion in the Seattle game, but it was in a limited, noncontact role. It appears he'll play on Sunday, but it's not guaranteed. Kaepernick does not throw to him as much as I'd like, but having him in the game even as a blocker is key.
  • WR Mario Mannigham is finished for the season. A.J. Jenkins needs to step up and make plays in his absence.
  • Larry Fitzgerald. Obviously I can't stand the guy. After all, he's an amazing wide receiver and he plays for the bad guys. That being said, he's been under-utilized and I can't help but feel a little bad for him. He's had the worst season of his career through no fault of his own and he handles everything with grace and a professional attitude. Still: here's hoping QB Brian Hoyer can't connect with him for big plays.


The Rest of It

  • In two weeks the Niners went from being Super Bowl favorites to being totally humiliated by Seattle. This season has been a rollercoaster and I know I'm not alone in my doubts if this team actually has what it takes to win the Super Bowl.
  • This game is huge. The Niners just need to play smart and with confidence. Greg Roman needs to stop being so aggressive and go back to what works. If everyone just shows up and plays his best, we've got this. I just hope with so much on the line, the Niners don't choke.
  • I'm nervous, of course. (I'm always nervous when it comes to the Niners). But I think we've got this. Not by 16 ½ points, but by at least a touchdown.

Watch San Francisco vs. Arizona on Sunday at 1:25 p.m. PT on FOX.