It's been 365 days, one failed first round draft round pick, a new/old coach, a franchise-changing trade, and an improbable playoff run since last year's NBA draft, and guess what? The Warriors needs coming into today's 2007 NBA draft haven't changed one bit from last year.

They still need a big body down low that can board and command the paint, and they need a defensive stopper.

If this was any other year, we'd have followed that last sentence with a "yada-yada" or some other derisive indication of our recognition that Warriors draft days are excruciatingly painful exercises in futility. But the Warriors have a chance to build on last year's successes, and that building could and should start with a smart, targeted, realistic draft today.

To do that though, the Warriors are going to need to think big -- big players, big picture, big time.

Nellie will undoubtedly be doing both today. Hopefully all of Warrior Nation will have a nice buzz going when the number 18 pick in today's NBA draft is announced. Image from noisebot.com.

It has been obvious since day one of Nellie II that coach Don Nelson has taken the player personnel wheel from VP of Basketball Operations Chris Mullin. In last year's draft, Mullin showed yet again that he is not up to the task, picking an underclassman big man with the Warriors number nine pick, then hiring Nelson, a coach with a long, long, long track record of disdain for both rookies and big men. Nice call Shooter.

With the team's second round pick, Mullin passed on local hero Leon Powe and picked Kosta Perovic, a beanpole Euro who won't even be contractually eligible to play for the Dubs for another year. Good decision making there.

Nelson immediately came in and took an axe handle to rookie Patrick O'Bryant's confidence and possibly his career, banishing him to the Bakersfield Jam of the NBA's Development League for most of the season. O'Bryant became the only first round draft pick ever to play in the D-League in his rookie season. So much for that pick.

So the good news this year is that Mullin will not be making the decisions. The bad news could be that Nellie is.

See, the Warriors need a big man who can be a force in the lane. But Nellie is forever fixated on his vision of an all-6'6" championship team. And never the two shall meet.

Despite the presence of some decent prospects for the power forward position (we're still hopeful that Nellie might draft a sizable PF, but we're not silly enough to think there's any chance he'll ever pick anybody with a C next to their name), look for Nellie to draft somebody 6'7" or shorter. He likes what he likes, and what he likes are swingmen that can run the court -- see earlier 6'6" comment.

Preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best, we've broken down the draft thusly: who the Dubs could draft, who they should draft, and who we think they actually will draft.

Once again, as it always seems to be, the Warriors find themselves in draft purgatory, on the outside of the first round sweet spot looking in. With the number 18 pick in the draft, the Warriors available choices will not include any immediate impact players. Plums like Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brandan Wright, and Joakim Noah, will be long, long gone. That's where a long-term plan can help. Y'uh-oh, and uh, gulp.

Some of the more attractive players likely to still be around when the Warriors take the podium in WAMU Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York include Jason Smith, Josh McRoberts, Sean Williams, and Tiago Splitter. All big bodies that could pull down some desperately needed boards and really give Andris Biedrins and the Warriors guards some room to work in the paint.

To address their need for a sizeable presence down low, the Warriors really should look no further than Smith or Splitter. Of these big men, the Brazilian Splitter seems most likely to be the best player still available that could bring some frontcourt force but still fit into Nellie's uptempo offense. Kind of a poor man's Joakim Noah. Most mock drafts have the Warriors picking Jason Smith.

Sigh. It is possible that Nelson will snap out of his messianic vision of coaching geniusdom via the small ball and go with Splitter, Smith, or Williams, but the call of the swingman may be just too much for him to resist. So it is with a fatalistic shrug of our shoulders that we suspect Nick Young, Derrick Byars, or even Alondo Tucker might be the newest NBA player to receive the dubious distinction of Golden State Warriors number one draft pick. If that happens, next year on draft day, we'll once again be talking about the Warriors' need for defense and size.

As for the Warriors two second round picks (number 36, from Minnesota; number 46, from New Jersey), does it really matter? General consensus is that Glen "Big Baby" Davis is a good match for the Warriors needs, but again, look for Nellie to load up on swingmen like they're bac-o-bits at the salad bar.

Here's the educated guesses of some local sports writers:

• Janny Hu (SFgate.com): Jason Smith
• Eric Gilmore (Contra Costa Times): "think small." Dear god, no.
• Tim Kawakami (San Jose Mercury News): Thaddeus Young

Of course, all this fancy prognosticatin' goes out the window if the Warriors decide to make a trade today. The draft and trade, trade and draft, move-up, move-down scenarios are endless, but tantalizing. The most likely draft day trade scenario involves a multiteam, multiplayer deal that would get the Warriors a high enough draft spot to get the Chinese Dirk Nowitzski, seven-foot power forward Yi Jianlian. Word on the street is that Nellie has a serious hard-on for Yi, so look for Nellie to do whatever he needs to do to get his man (that may mean saying "adios" to Jason Richardson).

As they did last year, the Warriors are opening the doors of the Oracle to the fans for a draft day "party." Last year's "party" was big on promises and pushy season ticket salespersons and short on entertainment. Admission is free, but this year we're going to stay home and watch the draft on ESPN for four hours, which is exactly what we did last year in the Oracle.