May 7, 2007
The Warriors: The Dream Continues, Tonight
Improbably, almost impossibly, the Golden State Warriors' dream season continues tonight with game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup with the Utah Jazz. The Warriors are into the semis by virtue of their historic six-game stunner over the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks; the Jazz eeked out a game 7 road win over the Houston Rockets.
The Jazz are the fourth seed in the Western Conference, but in our minds, its the Dubs that enter this series as the favorites. The Jazz are undoubtedly mentally and physically drained after their game 7 thriller on Saturday, while the Warriors are riding a wave of emotion that shows no sign of dissipating.
We're taking the Warriors in five. Considering that we were one of the few publications to go on record picking the Warriors to beat Dallas, in six games no less, and considering that we ran the table in first round of the Western Conference playoffs -- we even got the number of games right for every series except San Antonio-Denver (we picked Spurs in six instead of five games) -- we feel totally confident in sending you to Vegas with your life savings and the Warriors in five. In fact, it looks like many of you already have -- Point Spreads.com is reporting that 68 percent of the early spread money and 92 percent of money line bets thus far have been on Golden State.
The Beard is calling all comers, but the Utah Jazz will have no answer for him or the Warriors in their second-round Western Conference playoff series. Photo from espn.com.
This series will be a case study in opposite styles and a fascinating battle of wills between head coaches Don Nelson and Jerry Sloan. Both are stubborn, grizzled grand masters who have more than 2,000 NBA victories (and no titles) between them. Both will try to impose their style of basketball on the series or die trying. Nelson, of course, will seek to overwhelm Utah with the frenetic, madcap run-and-gun smallball; Sloan will try to slow things down to a crawl with suffocating defense, half-court sets, and ball control.
Utah presents somewhat of a puzzle for the Dubs because they are really a team without superstars. Forward Carlos Boozer (24.6 ppg; 11.0 rpg) is a grave and gathering force down low, but beyond Boozer, Utah is really a team built on the idea of being greater than the sum of its parts. That will make it hard for the Warriors to focus on any one player, but it will also make the Jazz game plan extremely limited and highly predictable. Utah has plenty of size in big men Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, and Matt Harpring, but the Warriors will counter with speed, speed, and more speed. Matt Harpring against Jax -- who you gonna take? Exactly.
Once again, we expect the Warriors guards to completely overwhelm the Utah backcourt. If healthy, Baron Davis will continue his MVP performance and Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, and Monta Ellis are going to absolutely eat former Warrior Derek Fisher and fellow guardsman Deron Williams and Dee Brown alive. Defense stopper Ronnie Brewer might cause some problems, but there's only one of him against what will seem to him like six or seven interchangeable Warriors guards.
Check out our favorite Warriors site, Golden State of Mind, for all the pregame analysis you could ever hope to read.
The Jazz have home court advantage in this series and their fans seem almost as hungry for playoff success as the Warriors' fans. But look for the Warriors to take game 1, take the home court advantage, and take the Jazz' legs right out from under them with a massive, overpowering effort tonight. We've got the Warriors by 20 points.
So, once again, that's Warriors in five. You heard it hear first, again. Oh yeah, and the Spurs in six.
|
You're absolutely insane. I'm not saying this just because the Warriors lost tonight, but you're WAY too over confident. I do think the Warriors can win this series, but your breathless and irrational analysis is based purely on emotion, rather than actual match ups and playing styles.
Warriors by 20? Not quite. If, and perhaps even when, the Warriors win this series, it will come from key adaptations, i.e. playing a slower style of a game against a well-disciplined team. If you expect the Jazz to simply be run off the court, think again. Sure, they blew the Mavs out of the water, but this is the playoffs; there are some really, really talented teams here.
There is no way in hell the Warriors will continue to win by 20-point margins, despite their great outputting in the first round. It's going to come down to one thing -- defense. As evidenced by tonight's tough loss, the Warriors are lacking in this department and can't come up with key stops, especially when Boomdizzle and company have five fouls on them. And they can't continue to rely on the three ball; they need to establish an inside presence at some point. Enter Al Harrington, right? Right, but he himself can't contain Boozer, let alone someone like Tim Duncan.
It's time for a reality check: The Warriors played amazing in round one, but if they are to make a serious run against the Jazz, expect a long, hard-fought series with a key focus on defense. They Jazz have an equally potent offense, so don't get too carried away with the "Dubs'" outside shooting.
Opposite styles? Well, sort of. The Jazz proved they can clearly keep pace with the high-speed "Dubs" and they can play defense, and rebound, and block shots, and so on.
So, like I said, the Warriors can win this series, but in five games? No.Freakin'.Way. Bandwagon fans are welcome to root for the team, but when you weigh in with pompous and ill-informed predictions, you're only going to make yourself look stupid.
And even though they lost tonight, I was encouraged by thier clutch play down the strecth, and if they can split two games away from home, they're in good shape.
Warriors in seven long, really tense games.
Go Warriors!
Van, thanks for the comments, appreciate the interest. We agree that our predictions for this series were emotional, if not irrational.
You make good points about the realities of this series, and if there was a way we could go back and change our pick to seven games we would.
That said, we must take serious offense with your calling us "bandwagon fans" that "weigh in with pompous and ill-informed predicitions."
First off, we've been covering the Warriors closely in this blog for two years now, on top of our nearly 20-year hate-love-hate relationship with the team. We've suffered with this team for a long time, so any criticism or love we give this team we've earned the right to give. And speaking of which, where have you been Van? We're pretty sure that this is the first time we've ever seen a comment from you on a Warriors post. Glass houses baby, glass houses.
And about those "pompous and ill-informed predictions" -- uh, did you feel that way when we called the Dubs in six before the Dallas series? And what was your prediction by the way? Didn't see you on record anywhere with your picks.
We don't quite understand the venom in your email, since we're obstensibly all on the same team, or at least rooting for the same team.
Going forward, we hope to get a lot more Warriors comments from you Van and not just when they're in the second round of the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.
Cheers.
Sorry, Chris, for the vitriolic spew. I think I had few too many when I was commenting. It happens when you watch the game at a bar where your friend works. And I shouldn't have assumed you're a band wagoner. My apologies. I tend to get carried away sometimes.
For the record, though, I did predict the Ws would make the playoffs in November, much to the chagrin and dismay of fellow Bay Area hoops fans. There were a few, sure, but even die-hard fans weren't saying much in January, ya know?
I guess my bandwagon rant wasn't directly aimed at you; it was more of, well, a rant, in light of the very many bandwagon fans' recent support, and in light of a tough loss that could have gone our way with one shot.
My first round prediction was Ws in seven, so I guess you got me there.
Indeed, going forward you'll probably hear more from me, and I'll try to stay off the sauce when when I weigh in with my verbose rants and insights.
Cheers.
Van
Rock on Van, we hear you. Bandwagonistas are bugging us a bit too, but now's the time for comity and community in Warrior Nation. We'll deal witht the johnnie-come-latelies in the offseason.
No worries on the vitriol, we've spewed our share. Keep the rants and insights coming!
Do a couple of shots for us tomorrow night, we'll be with you in spirit.
Cheers.