Your San Francisco Giants Season Preview Part Two
Yesterday, we tackled the issue of what to expect of this year's team. Today, we'll take a look at whether we should be happy with the expectations of this year's team.
SFist: So, McCovey Chronicles, does all this mean that we should expect a 70-80 win season? Which should put us, well, the same place we've been the past couple of seasons. Is that good or is that bad? Lefty's right in that the West isn't so easy anymore. I won't say which team is looking scary good right now (as I understand it, we're not allowed to mention their name) but let's just say it appears that the student has become the master.
My fear is that as the season progresses, Roberts turns into the kind of guy who plays on four teams in five years, Richie returns to a guy who hits around .260 and Klesko is, well I used to have Klesko on my fantasy baseball team. He was the kind of guy who wouldn't do badly
but wouldn't do that great and you'd go months without remembering he was on your team.
Oh, let's see what else scares me—Bonds starts playing like a 43 year old man with creaky knees and Ray Durham returns to his usual spot on the DL. Also, Lowry still won't get his act together, last season wasn't a fluke for Morris (it seemed to me that he'd pitch really good
up until one inning and then completely cough up a fur ball of an inning), and Bruce Bochy starts wondering why he left the land of fish tacos for the land of garlic fries.
On the other hand, it's definitely better than the Great Niekro Experiment but is it better than having Hillenbrand out there? And yes, taking time away from Petey would be good too. Here's my theory on what happened to him these past couple of years, mainly that Felipe
forgot he could actually put another name on the lineup card at 3b and poor Petey just got plain old tired out there. Maybe a fresh Petey is a not-swinging-at-every-bad-pitch Petey.
Oh, and as for Matt Cain, why do I have bad visions of a sophomore slump? Or, considering the Giants recent history with their young pitching studs, horrible, horrible injuries and a possible trade to the Twins.
So, should we have reason to worry or should we just be happy if we're slightly above .500?
McCovey Chronicles: Expect a 70-80 win season? Maybe. Be happy if they're just above .500? Not until they go down into some '05 49ers circle of rebuilding hell. As the Giants are constructed, they don't look like a guaranteed winner. But they didn't look like a division winner in '97 or a 100-game winner in '04. The Tigers needed a lot of help to move from "young and interesting" to " A.L. Champs." The Giants could be great with some good luck or terrible with some bad luck. The age and expected mediocrity of the offense points toward the latter, but that doesn't mean fans should be happy with .500.
Feliz will never be good. I've given up. He's overpaid, over 30, and over here. The Feliz of the the first half of last year, though, was almost tolerable. Maybe there is something to the idea he needs more rest.
I bring up the Tigers in an offhand fashion, but that really is the template the Giants need to follow. The Tigers didn't have much of an offense, but there weren't any complete abominations in the lineup. The rotation was outstanding. If you draw direct parallels between Rogers and Zito, Cain and Bonderman, Verlander and Lincecum, you can see why it isn't totally goofy to be excited about the season. That kind of across-the-board performance takes a special kind of luck, though. That's why it would be totally goofy to ignore the pile of doubts.
El Lefty Malo: Grant makes an interesting point about the Tigers and lack of offensive abominations. Put in that light, the Giants' O as currently assembled needs two major changes. First, another big power hitter so the lineup could be Durham-Bonds-Big Scary Guy. Second, no more Feliz. I'm with Grant; he'll never get better. I guess there's a second-and-a-half: a real leadoff hitter against left-handed pitching, because Dave Roberts shouldn't play against lefties. The rest of the lineup -- Vizquel #2, Winn and Molina at the back end -- would be at least league-average, it seems to me.
Disclaimer: This is a short-term outlook only and doesn't allow for a single injury.
I'd be "happy" with a .500 season the same way I'm "happy" I wake up with some hair left on my head after a dream in which I look like Bozo the Clown. Nightmare forestalled one more day, woo-hoo!
Here's the weird optimistic bit: if the Giants can make changes to the position players in 07/08 the way they've changed the pitching staff in 05/06, they'll be in damn good shape by 2009. Because they're already very close to having a damn good pitching staff, give or take half a bullpen.
SFist: What do you think of the new deal for Matt Cain. Locking up good players is always the smart thing to do, but it's tricker with pitchers as they're more fragile.
El Lefty Malo: In principle it's very smart, but I haven't seen the dollar figures. I'll add another quick comment on the Cain deal: 4 yrs, $9 million is fantastic. It's slightly less than Lowry's deal -- leaving out their option years, which I'll get to in a moment -- even though a year of stunning salary inflation has occurred between Lowry's signing and Cain's deal.
Cain could have a more expensive 5th year option; no one's released the details. But even with the option and the escalator clauses (also still secret) it's unlikely Cain will make more than $20 million over the life of the contract. If he had the exact same year as '06 five more years in a row, that would still be a deal. But odds are he'll get better.
McCovey Chronicles: In the risk/reward column, the Giants didn't stave off any major financial risks. Dontrelle Willis has gone to arbitration several times, but never got some crazy $15M payday. The Giants had Cain under control for those four years, and the arbitration system isn't set up to make young players rich. So if the Giants didn't do it, they weren't exactly making a devastating blunder.
But I'm happy for Cain. If Cain gets hurt, he still has a comfortable life. I, on the other hand, wouldn't be so comfortable if Cain got hurt, what with the katana blade sticking out of my abdomen. So stay healthy, Matt.
The cost certainty doesn't hurt at all, either. If Cain is as good as we all think he's going to be, it's the deal of a lifetime. If Cain and Lowry can both be above-average, we'll have an underpaid rotation -- even taking Zito into account.
Coming up tomorrow-- Magowan vs. Sabean and Predictions