The Warriors: Timing is Everything
Over the last 12 years, nobody has really accused the Warriors of having their act together. They've burned through a litany of coaches, a couple of really bad GMs, and more than one first round draft choice with nothing to show for them but more new coaches, front office suits, and first round draft choices.
Another hallmark of the modern-day Warriors' mean mean stride has been their fast starts, awful middles, and decent finishes. Even in their worst years, the Warriors managed to finish the season on an uptick, perpetually giving false hope for the next season – even if that hope was just a Lottery pick.
This year had all the looks of more of the same, but a funny thing happened on the way to the cellar: the bottom fell out of the middle of the Western Conference.
Look out Western Conference, there's a new sheriff in town (actually an eighth-seed deputy hopeful, but who's counting). Photo from espn.com.
With the Clippers’ loss to San Antonio Tuesday night, your Golden State Warriors are just 0.5 games, that’s one-half of one game, out of the playoffs. Oh, it’s on, baby!
Yes, the Warriors stumbled through their traditional January and February fog, going 10-19 between January 1 and March 4 to fall as many as nine games below .500 and as many as four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot. But the good news is they have not been alone. Minnesota and Denver, two teams that were several games above .500 going into January have fallen on hard times and are struggling. The Clippers, Kings, and Hornets have surged, but got off to such bad starts that their improved play has only moved them into the fringes of the playoff discussion. Portland lurks yet in hopeful mediocrity.
So the Warriors have not exactly shined the last couple of months, but they haven't had to. They've done an adequate job bailing water and keeping the ship somewhat afloat with duct tape, wishful thinking, and good intentions -- and that February trade sure didn't hurt. Now they find themselves in prime position to capture that last playoff spot. Hell, with the Lakers in freefall, even the six spot is a legitimate possibility.
The Warriors are a dangerous team right now because they are pretty close to full strength, they've made it through the worst part of their schedule, and they're picking up momentum. Different from past Warrior teams, this team has the heart and the confidence to win.
And you know what? This team can win. They can win at home and they can win against the best teams in the league. In the last week, they have beaten two playoff rivals (Denver, LA Clips) and the leader of both conferences. In fact, the Dubs are 4-0 this year against conference leaders Dallas and Detroit. They still have a problem winning on the road, but their excellent home record has been enough to suffer them through their road woes.
In our minds, the Warriors are the favorites for the number eight spot, and that's a good thing. Naysayers point out that even if they get the eight seed, they'll just get smoked by the number one seed in the first round. Well guess what? As of today, that would be the Dallas Mavericks. Bring 'em on! The Ws are 2-0 against Dallas this year, winning on the road in November and snapping the Mavs 17-game winning streak Monday night at the O-rena. Over the last three years, the Warriors own the powerful Texas iconoclasts.
How are they doing it? The NBA is a league of matchups and in a quirk of fate that must have Avery Johnson eating his spleen, the Warriors have a clear match-up advantage over the Mavericks. Specifically, the Warriors backcourt can run circles around the Mavs guards. It's not even close. Couple that with the Mavs soft roster (a legacy of the Don Nelson era, a-hem!) and the Warriors frontcourt and defensive deficiencies are cancelled out, leaving them with an obvious advantage.
It's such an advantage that the Warriors need to be careful not to win too many games coming down the stretch. The Warriors should want to play the number one seed in the Western Conference in the first round of the playoffs, because the Mavericks are a team they can beat. If they move up to number seven, they'll have to play the Suns and that is not as good of a matchup for the Warriors because the Suns are what the Warriors aspire to be.
There's a feeling in the Bayside air right now that this may be the year -- maybe it's just us. If this is the year, timing will play a large role. The Warriors are surging at the end of the season when it counts. They are surging when their rivals for playoff spots are faltering. They are surging when they traditionally sag. Halla-freakin'-lullah! The Warriors may have finally timed their seasonal mood swings just right this year, going manic when it counts to contend for a playoff spot for the first time in a baker’s dozen.
It's about time(ing).