The Warriors: This is Do-able
Far be it for us to be the voice of optimism, but, are you ready for this Warrior nation -- the playoffs are doable, this year. Just as others seem to be abandoning ship, we step in to illustrate how miracles can happen.
If not for some unkind scheduling that left the squad trying to keep up with Phoenix on the tail end of a home-and-road back-to-back, a surprisingly frequent scenario that has not been kind to them this year, the Warriors would most likely be sitting at 19-17 right now, two games over .500 this late in the season for the first time since 1993-1994 and in a virtual three-way tie for the seventh and eighth playoff spots. Unfortunately, it's hard to get respect when you haven't even sniffed the playoffs in 12 years.
It's hard to beat the Suns, period, let alone on the road with tired legs. So please overlook Sunday night's 128-105 sleepwalk through the Valley. It is just one minor setback, . . . on the way to the playoffs?
Yup. Check yourselves, but if the playoffs were to start today, the Warriors would be the first alternate (#9 seed). That's a moral victory right there. Yes, there are four more months of the season to play, but it's heartening to know they're still in the hunt. Many's the January of yore that Warrior fans wistfully pined for the lofty scent of .500 and just the faintest whisper of hope.
The number eight seed is so tantalizing close, we can almost feel it. And if you think that's hard to believe, we can even see a way for the Warriors to grab that spot in time for May. Standings grid from ESPN.com.
Let's crunch some numbers, because as weird as it feels to write this during the middle of a season, the Warriors' future is not unbright.
The Bayside boys are 14-5 this year at the O-rena, for a home winning percentage of .737. They have 22 home games remaining on the schedule and 24 road games. If they can maintain their current home winning percentage, that will give them 16 more home wins, for a 30-11 home record for the season. Their road record is 4-13, for an anemic .235, uh, winning percentage. If they can just maintain that pitiful number, they will grab six more road wins to finish with ten for the season. If they could steal a couple of victories here and there, they could easily reach last year's road win total of 13. That would give them a total of 43 wins.
Last year, the Sacto Queens got a golden ticket to the playoffs with 44 wins. Which means the Warriors are theoretically just one win out of the playoffs if they can just continue on their current pace. But wait, if they can scratch out three to four extra wins somewhere along the line . . . right? huh? hey? ho, Hah!. And Warriors Nation and the pundits stand ready with lots of advice about how the Warriors can make up those extra games.
Not convinced? Narrow your focus. The Grizzlies, Blazers, Sonics, and Hornets are out for sure. The Hornets may resurge a bit when they heal up, but the damage to their season has already been done. Dallas, San Antonio, Utah, the Lakers, and Phoenix pretty much have playoff spots wrapped up. Houston was looking like a lock until Yao Ming went down. Depending on the extent of his injury, Houston's spot could go back into the playoff kitty. But let's assume the Rockets can hold the line until he gets back. That's six teams that are a lock.
If we have done our math right, that leaves two open spots. Realistically, the Warriors need only worry about Minnesota, Denver, the LA Clippers, and Sacto, in that order. Five teams going at it for two spots. The opportunity is there.
Let's dig a little deeper into the numbers. The Warriors have all three games yet to play against the Twolves (two home, one away); two games left with Denver (1/1); all four games with the Clips (2/2); and one road game left against the Queens. These 10 games may very well make or break the Oaktownies playoff chances.
But.
There are a few pitfalls. First and foremost are two brutal road trips. A five-gamer at the end of this month that starts with Cleveland, includes two back-to-backs, and terminates (let's hope that's not an unfortunate choice of words) in Minnesota. Then there's a six-spot toward the end of February that takes the bedraggled lads to Milwaukee, Chicago, Washington, and Detroit. Yeesh, that looks like a really scary trip. But of the 11 games in these combined road trips, only the Minnesota game on February 7 is against a Western Conference foe. All the Warriors have to do is win the Minnesota game and one other and they won't lose any ground in the playoff numbers race we spelled out earlier in this piece. And if there is one good thing about up-tempo, it's that it is relentless night in and night out, which makes it a nice buffer against long losing streaks.
Next problem are those pesky Timberwolves. Kevin Garnett seems intent on willing his team to the playoffs this year. If the Warriors could just put all their efforts into orchestrating a trade for KG instead of bumbling around the edges of trade rumors they have no business getting involved with, they could kill two birds with one stone. But it doesn't look like that will ever happen. Coach Don Nelson doesn't want anybody taller than six-foot-seven playing on his court.
The Nuggets look really strong on paper and sometimes even on the court, but we can't help but wonder if Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson are going to get along. Pundits are carrying on at length about Denver's backcourt, which now boasts the league's two highest scorers, but we and others are not convinced. AI doesn't share well with others, and it seems unlikely that a change of scenery will also change his selfish spots. He is an amazing player but he is also a disruptive force. Denver could either surge to the five or six seed by April or they could disintegrate into a smoldering pile of discontent.
Sacto is hanging around, but they just don't look like they have the stamina or the horses to carry through. They'll bleed losses from here to April and finish about 15 games under .500.
The Clippers are the real dark horse in this group (other than the Warriors). With their leader Sam Cassell now back from injury, the Clips look like they might finally be getting the old Evinrude cranking. Look for them to make a run in the next two months. Maybe the Warriors can grab hold of some coattails and surge with them.
But most importantly, Baron must stay healthy. If not, all the delusional rationalizations in the world ain't gonna git the Warriors into anything but the lottery.
The Warriors can get started on their magic number, 44 wins, tonight at the O-rena against the Orlando Magic. The Magic are solid this year and feature inside beast Dwight Howard and veteran slasher Grant Hill, but the Warriors may have their number. Last month, the Warriors beat the Magic in Orlando for only the second time in the last 14 tries; the last time coming back in the 1990s. Hmm, what's the other thing the Warriors haven't done since the 1990s?.