December 23, 2006
State Senate Shenanigans
Man, we are starting to get a headache trying to stay on top of the convoluted machinations of the San Francisco 2008 State Senate race. You may remember that current State Assembly rep Mark Leno floated a trial balloon to run in two years for the seat currently held by his former friend Carole Migden. After pooh-poohing the rumor, Migden then promptly started floating trial balloons of her own that she might run against Gavin Newsom for mayor in 2007, to improve her name recognition in SF and shore up support with anti-Newsomites.
Well, the latest rumor (from the Bay Area Reporter) is that folks have heard tell that Aaron Peskin is now thinking about running for the State Senate seat as well. Whaaaaa? The tea-leaf readers think maybe he's working with Migden, to try and split the progressive vote between himself and Leno, to assure Migden's victory. Or, more ominously for Migden -- it could be that Migden is now seen as easy prey. Folks in Marin and Sonoma (which are in the same district as SF) are now thinking maybe they should run someone too.
And this just in, from the Left in SF comments -- apparently Gavin's now upset with Leno for running against Migden too. Not so much out of any loyalty to Harry Britt (who lost to Leno for the Assembly seat in 2002) or dedication to Migden (at whose same-sex wedding he officiated), but because he's afraid that if Leno runs, Migden will definitely run for mayor against him and he doesn't want the stress.
But wait! The waters get murkier (and Don Perata gets involved), after the jump.
Picture of Aaron Peskin and Mark Leno talking at the SF Center for Economic Development Legislators' Forum.
Let the rumor-mongering begin! According to the state politics newspaper Capitol Weekly, State Senate leader Don Perata told Leno not to run for Migden's seat, since she's a sitting senator (and Perata may need to stay on everyone in the Senate's good side right now, given that he's under investigation by the FBI for influence-peddling).
However, Leno says Perata never told him that. In addition, on Leno's side of things, reports also have it that Perata isn't so happy with Migden these days either, after kicking her out of her Senate Appropriations seat after that whole voting button issue -- plus, Leno's done a lot of fundraising for a bunch of state reps so a lot of people owe him favors.
Wow, who knew state politics might become as interesting as local politics around here? Let the bloodletting begin!
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I think that that is a pretty shitty thing for Peskin to do -- not just to Leno but to the voting public because it is dishonest and counterproductive. The assumption is that Peskin is going to fool the 'stupid' public into voting for him -- not because he expects (or wants) to win, rather, he is attempting to use a cold-hearted strategy to 'save the people from themselves' and to thwart any sort of supposed conflict -- benefits to the voters be damned. And Leno genuinely wants the job, which adds insult to injury.
By the way, this plan may backfire. Peskin, in spite of all his accomplishments, isn't exactly a progressive darling. He may actually take more votes away from Migden than Leno.
With IRV, if Peskin runs against Migden and Leno, he won't be a spoiler. Leno would just need to get enough second place votes from those voting for his opponents, if no one wins a majority.
I want to contribute this tid bit,Tom Ammiano has his eye and Leno's termed out seat.
No RCV for a state race. Top vote-getter wins, period.
Ammiano formally declared for Leno's AD13 seat six months ago. No one else has declared yet, but it's early.
I think Peskin would hurt Leno, because people in Marin don't know anything about Peskin or Leno. They go to Migden. SF will split anyway along lines yet to be determined, but in a proportional sense, Peskin hurts Leno because he'll take votes from him where he needs them, in SF.