C'mon, doesn't anyone want to run for mayor against Gavin Newsom? Isn't there's someone out there who's dying for a chance to answer the Board of Supervisors' questions once a month? So here's everyone's current status:
Ross Mirkarimi: Mirkarimi told the Chron (where we got most everyone's quotes), "I'm being encouraged to run, but I don't want to be a sacrificial lamb." He did tell us at yesterday's art show in his office, though, that he was pleased to have narrowly beaten out Lou Seal in the SFist Mayoral Poll.
Mr. Mustache Chris Daly: Daly told Barbara Taylor on City Desk Newshour that his numbers were too negative to do it, and that he wants the best progressive possible to run. He's trying to talk Matt Gonzalez into going for it again.
Matt Gonzalez: All coy -- "I don't believe I'm going to run for mayor. The chances are slim." But not zero? Meanwhile, check out his collage art!
Bevan Dufty: The latest entrant in the "Anyone But Gavin" speculation. The ChronBlogs put out an interesting 10-point list of reasons why he might win. Would the progressives get behind it, though? Hmm.
Aaron Peskin: "I have thought about it -- but it was a very short thought." (Since Peskin is actually taller than we are, we're not going to make any jokes about that here.) Peskin also said, "Well, right now I think Gavin Newsom is only running against himself, and he's having a tough race." Ouch!
More candidates after the jump. Some are actually thinking about it!
Picture of Ross from yesterday's art party. Picture of Bevan by the photog with the mostest, Adam Aufdencamp.
DA Kamala Harris: "No."
City attorney Dennis Herrera: "No."
PD Jeff Adachi: "Are you kidding?"
Art Agnos: No, but he complains, "[Newsom] does not use one scintilla of his political capital on anyone or anything."
Willie Brown: M&R always talk to Willie Brown. He says, ha ha ha ha. "I don't think I'd like the job."
John Burton: "Gave it a lot of thought, rejected it out of hand."
Tony Hall: "We are very definitely leaning toward it. We are doing all the due diligence and all the groundwork -- and it looks good.'' Why the first person plural, Tony? Do you write for SFist?
Man, is there anyone else out there? You think Joanna Newsom would do it?
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I wish Ross would do it.I really believe he could win.He does have a more practicality about him self. I guess we will have to wait until the dead line nears to see who will take Gavin on.
Ooh! Look at you guys with a mention in today's M&R! Nice work!
kids,
Back in reality. Note that Matier spent more time talking about Michael Hennessey than anyone. He'd do the best job of all of the potential candidates given consideration of the real problems facing the city. Make note.
Get Latterman to give you a 'fluff quotient'. That's actually a key factor. Your poll is already more legitimate than anything David Binder's done in 5 or 6 years.
Want a real wild card who could win? Try Sister Bernie Galvin. I watched her kick Gavin's ass in a debate in front of the Commonwealth Club a couple of years back.
More women, folks. Am I the only one who likes girls?
h.
I've never said a bad thing about Kamala Harris. Not yet, at least.
I'm not quite sure what a fluff quotient is, but I suspect it's the percentage of a pol's popularity that's "real" versus the portion that's just some kind of personal popularity.
If Newsom's popularity is like 80% (I think it's gone down and hence the staff change NOW), then what % is because voters think he's a good mayor and what % just think he looks good in his blue tie? Simply put, it's base versus movable voters.
The portion that think he's a good mayor are re-election votes and the fluff % are people who can change their mind. Willie Brown, for instance, had a low fluff quotient. People either wanted him as mayor or not. No one voted the second time for him because they liked him as a man about town.
The best way to get this is out of a poll, which of course you'll never see. But I have a sense of how to do it with election stats. Remember all the other candiates have this, too.
I still maintain that Newsom will be extremely difficult to beat. However, I plan to study Brown vs. Jordan in the next couple months. Different time, but it's been done.
David,
By 'fluff', I mean fluff. As you guessed. How they look. Gonzo went on Bruzzone a few months back and Arthur actually told Matt he looked bad. Well, not in those words. I believe he said: "You certainly look different than you did in your campaign." Gonzo lost 20 lbs. He's a certain entry, by the way. He told the Greens a week or so back that he'd enter if no credible Progressive entered. This is the guy who didn't consider Alioto or Ammiano 'credible' 3 years ago (for the record, I agreed and urged him to run). He's in.
Angela also has gotten into fighting trim by drinking refrigerators full of low cal stuff. There's a fight uh looomin' here, David and I can hardly wait.
Incidentally, why didn't Randlett know in advance that Kawa was out? What kind of soccer team are they running down there?
h.
I like Ross Mirkirimi, Chris Daly, and Krissy Keefer--
Ross should wait-- he is getting a lot done for the whole city as a Supervisor-- and it would be a shame if his District lost him. He fills Matt's shoes very well-- and is making his own imprint. I believe he will be a U.S. Senator one day.
Chris is realistic and right. Much of the city is not yet ready for him. He should consider becoming a Green. Then his career could fly beyond his district. We saw how the Democrats treated Cynthia McKinney. Chris could be Mayor one day-- but not when the city is controlled as it is.
Krissy Keefer has the smarts to be a great mayor and more-- she should grab a local office or a more visible stage and get better known. It was a shame that too many people missed what she had to say when she ran against Nancy Pelosi. She is brilliant and very talented.
Tom Ammiano is a widely admired and would excel in the job-- but when he last ran, my impression was that his heart was not in it 100%. He is a bridge from what was best in San Francisco's past and what will best in its future... and he has more to give, especially if the oppressive status quo changed.
Newsom tricked Tony Hall with the Treasure Island fiasco-- an admirable guy in many ways who doubtless has the passion and tenacity to put up a strong race-- but would he be getting off on the right foot?
The Bay Guardian calling Newsom a chicken does not give the incumbent much wiggle room to drop out should he really want to. He will likely run anyway, and I believe it would only bring him heartache. It would be a challenge for the city elites to create a new front person-- unless they could co-opt somebody. Peskin would be the best fall back for them; they might prefer Alioto-Pier-- but she wouldn't stand a chance with her voting record. Seems the elites have been snoozing...or feeling guilty?
If Newsom had the guts to stand up to his handlers he could resurrect his political career if he wants to-- he is smart enough... and I believe he has a heart. I can't write him off as a decent human being-- he will should certainly have an interesting life and keep the admiration of many. If John Edwards' career took off maybe we would see him in Washington... my advice: Barack Obama is fool's gold.
Art Agnos is right about Newsom-- and he should know. Art is a bridge between what was best in San Francisco's past and what will be best in San Francisco's future.
And the best candidate?
Still Matt Gonzalez-- everyone who wants the best for the people of San Francisco are already on his team in one degree or another.
Nader was right recently-- Matt could well be governor of California one day. Matt has matured well-- he almost looks like a kid in the photo on the wikipedia. Things don't come as easily for Matt as some may think, which is a blessing in disguise. He has something deeper inside which comes out at the right time. I think now is the time for him to run.
To all Democrats: consider becoming Greens-- especially if the Democrats fail to stop Bush and his expanded war plans. Banning cigarettes from the house lobby was a pretty trivial accomplishment in Pelosi's first 100 hours. There are some bodies in boxes coming home who couldn't give a fig.
I'm trying to figure out how to run for mayor. Please tell me how. My girlfriends is bugging me to give it up, but I can't. Help me.
Alcides.
I want to run for mayor.