One way of figuring out what'll happen to Barry is to look at all the teams who might be interested in him. Process of elimination and all that. Barry's agent has said there are lots of teams interested in him, but as John Shea pointed out, that's probably not true. So where then?
Because stat-heads can figure anything out (we're awaiting some guy with a calculator to figure out how to get out of Iraq), a columnist in the NY Times got together with the Baseball Prospectus to figure it all out.
The first thing they tried to figure out was just what Barry would do next year. This is a way of measuring his value to a team. The verdict? Barry would hit an average of .270 next season, with about 25 home runs, and 135 walks. No prediction of .OBPS but we're guessing all of this will mean it'll be in the high .300s, possibly in the .400s. That's pretty good.
So good that Bonds will bring a team about five wins just by himself. And wins, as we all know, are good. That's better than any of the remaining free agents out there, which means Barry right now is a pretty good pick. The numbers also say that each win is about $1 million in revenue so Barry is worth at least $5 mil for whoever signs him. If the team makes the playoffs, it'll be upwards of around $40 million in revenue for the club. Considering he is also about to break the home run record and considering he's still a big draw, the potential there is for even more revenue.
One more thing, being in the pennant race can be worth an additional 8 mil in revenues so a team that contends can rake in up to $50 million by signing Barry. Well, not just Barry, but a team that's within a game or two of making the playoffs could if they sign him. It is for this reason that he's more valuable to playoff contenders than non-playoff contenders.
Which, according to the story, would eliminate the Giants.
Looking into the crystal ball, the writer says the team that could get the most bang for the buck would be the Twins. The reasons are because the team is a perennial contender in the toughest division so Barry could put them over the top. The Twins also don't have a great left-fielder and Barry would be a definite upgrade. Add a budget-surplus and dicey attendance and you have a match. Not stated but what should be mentioned is the fact that Barry could probably be even more productive if he hit in the Homer Dome. But on the other hand, playing on fake grass would probably not help his knees.
Unfortunately, the Twins also place a premium on team chemistry and Barry ain't known for helping with the chemistry. So there goes that great idea.
So let's go back to Shea's column. He speculates on two teams. One is the A's. That's because Barry has a great OBPS and Beane loves OBPS. He would also provide the big bat that Frank Thomas took with him. Shea also speculates on the Orioles signing him. That's actually not a half bad choice. The team isn't very good but has lots of money, the front office is just dumb enough to do it, and it brings attention to a team that plays in the shadow of the Sox and Yanks and needs something to get back on the baseball map. It is also worth mentioning that the Orioles signed Sammy Sosa after he had worn out his welcome with the Cubs and Albert Belle after he worn his welcome out with the Indians. In other words, they'll sign anyone.
Our guess? It's still one more year for Barry by the Bay.
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One way of figuring out what'll happen to Barry is to look at all the teams who might be interested in him. Process of elimination and all that. Barry's agent has said there are lots of teams interested in him, but as John Shea pointed out, that's probably not true. So where then?
Because stat-heads can figure anything out (we're awaiting some guy with a calculator to figure out how to get out of Iraq), a columnist in the NY Times got together with the Baseball Prospectus to figure it all out.
The first thing they tried to figure out was just what Barry would do next year. This is a way of measuring his value to a team. The verdict? Barry would hit an average of .270 next season, with about 25 home runs, and 135 walks. No prediction of .OBPS but we're guessing all of this will mean it'll be in the high .300s, possibly in the .400s. That's pretty good.
So good that Bonds will bring a team about five wins just by himself. And wins, as we all know, are good. That's better than any of the remaining free agents out there, which means Barry right now is a pretty good pick. The numbers also say that each win is about $1 million in revenue so Barry is worth at least $5 mil for whoever signs him. If the team makes the playoffs, it'll be upwards of around $40 million in revenue for the club. Considering he is also about to break the home run record and considering he's still a big draw, the potential there is for even more revenue.
One more thing, being in the pennant race can be worth an additional 8 mil in revenues so a team that contends can rake in up to $50 million by signing Barry. Well, not just Barry, but a team that's within a game or two of making the playoffs could if they sign him. It is for this reason that he's more valuable to playoff contenders than non-playoff contenders.
Which, according to the story, would eliminate the Giants.