51.53% Of District 6 Hates Chris After Absentee Count
The absentee and provisionals are in for today -- in the District 6 election! This week's episode: Everybody Hates It When We Do A Numbers Post.
Hey, the YouTube footage of Chris Daly's victory speech is up! See above. (Warning: It's about 15 minutes long. Plus, some R-rated language) You'll have to click after the jump to find partial footage of Sarah's (we gotta have something to make you keep reading.)
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So the updated numbers for the ballot count in District 6 are in (the counts are reprinted after the jump so you can check our math). Here's what we've calculated (everyone, check our math).
As of today, the total votes in the district are 13,024. Daly has 6313 (48.47%) and Black has 5191 (39.86%). On election night, the total vote count was 11,018, Daly had 5471 votes (49.66%) and Black had 4312 (39.14%).
So this latest round of voting added 2006 votes (13,024-11,018). Daly gained 842 votes and Black gained 879. So Black got 43.8% of the new votes and Daly gained 42.0% -- meaning Black had an advantage of 1.8% in the same-day absentees and provisionals. The new difference between Daly and Black's votes is 1122 votes.
To win, Daly has to get 6513 votes (13,024 divided by 2, plus 1). That means he needs to pick up 200 more votes (6513-6313) in the RCV runoff.
So how's the RCV runoff going to work? Sooooo -- the bottom candidate (Robert Jordan) will be tossed out and the 89 ballots that had him listed in first place will then have their second-place votes redistributed. If after that, no one has a clear majority, they'll redistribute the votes of the next last place person.
Let's say that person is George Dias (who currently has 173 votes). So they take all the ballots listing George Dias as a top choice and redistribute those votes to the next person they have listed. At this point, if you voted for Jordan first and Dias second, they'll go to your third ranked choice for the second redistribution.
The next run is where the dreaded "exhausted ballot" comes into play. If Daly hasn't picked up 200 votes by the end of run 2, then we'll explain what happens at that point in our next post.
So the magic number for Daly for now is 200. (For ease of calculation from here on out, we're assuming that all the absentees and provisionals have been counted. If it turns out there are more still outstanding, we'll wait for the revised count and we'll update these numbers at that point.)
Okay, enough with the blah blah blah. Onto the Sarah Daly video!
YouTube clips by user d6politics.
partial video only! (3:07). Look at the brief look of panic that flashes in Chris's eyes as Sarah revs up! (2:15-2:33)
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To check our math, here's the numbers from the sfgov.org site. We've also included the first count of the pre-election day absentees so you can run any numbers you want yourself from this post. Feel free to post your calculations in the comments!
As of 3:23 p.m. today, 11/9.
CHRIS DALY . . . . . . . . . . 6,313 48.47
ROB BLACK . . . . . . . . . . 5,191 39.86
MATT DRAKE . . . . . . . . . . 487 3.74
VILIAM DUGOVIC. . . . . . . . . 269 2.07
DAVY JONES . . . . . . . . . . 268 2.06
MANUEL JIMENEZ, JR. . . . . . . . 234 1.80
GEORGE DIAS. . . . . . . . . . 173 1.33
ROBERT JORDAN . . . . . . . . . 89 .68
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 0
Tally at the end of election night
MEMBER, BOARD OF SUPERVISORS DIST. 6
VOTE FOR 1
CHRIS DALY.................................................5,471 49.66
ROB BLACK...................................................4,312 39.14
MATT DRAKE...................................................378 3.43
VILIAM DUGOVIC..............................................235 2.13
DAVY JONES....................................................216 1.96
MANUEL JIMENEZ, JR.........................................189 1.72
GEORGE DIAS...................................................142 1.29
ROBERT JORDAN.................................................75 .68
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 0
The 9:00 p.m. election night initial total (pre-election day absentees)
VOTE FOR 1 (9:00 p.m.)
ROB BLACK . . . . . . . . . . 784 43.97
CHRIS DALY . . . . . . . . . . 700 39.26
MATT DRAKE . . . . . . . . . 87 4.88
DAVY JONES . . . . . . . . . . 58 3.25
VILIAM DUGOVIC. . . . . . . . . 57 3.20
MANUEL JIMENEZ, JR. . . . . . . . 57 3.20
GEORGE DIAS. . . . . . . . . . 27 1.51
ROBERT JORDAN . . . . . . . . . 13 .73
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 0