The Warriors: 2006-2007 season preview, part two

The guards are quick, young, and very talented, but they're not particularly good on defense, lack size, and are susceptible to injury. Already this preseason, Davis, Pietrus, Ellis, Roberson, and McLeod have been nursing sundry aches and pains, and Richardson has yet to see any court time because of ongoing rehabilitation from this summer's knee surgery. Wagner continues to recover from his colitis condition.

Look for the guards to lead this team, but only if their bodies can stand up to the relentless action of the new up-tempo system. If the injuries to the guards start to pile up, the Warriors can start thinking about who they're going to take with their annual lottery pick next year.

Weaknesses

That would be the frontcourt. Long a black hole for the Warriors, Nelson's small-ball system addresses the frontcourt problem by taking it out of the equation. The Warriors are going small and they ain't looking back. Undersized Troy Murphy is going to take over at center and fanbase whipping boy Mike Dunleavy is going to play PF, that's power forward/point forward. Nelson is convinced that Dunleavy is the next Dirk Nowitzki, so look for him to get a crapload of minutes, many of them bringing the ball up court. Look for Murphy to cause some interesting matchup problems and some interior space for the guards to drive by forcing the other team's big man to come out and respect his perimeter game. Both Murphy and Dunleavy will benefit statistically from the new system. Look for Murph to rack up another double-double year and Dunleavy to average 15 points and 8 assists a night.

Those are good numbers, but they won't be enough. Good defensive teams will be able to exploit the team's poor shooting and slow down the up-tempo offense by playing half-court basketball. In half-court sets, the Warriors' lack of size and strength down low will be as glaring on offense as it will be on defense. Neither Murphy nor Dunleavy offer any kind of shot-blocking presence or defensive deterrent. And the bench is not exactly formidable. Nelson appears willing to give Andres Biedrins an honest look, but it will be little more than a glance unless Biedrins can shake his foul-per-minute-played habit. Last year's top draft choice, Ike Diogu, has already tasted the bite of Nellie's wrath and might have to play a little center himself. This year's top draft choice, Patrick O'Bryant, barely avoided landing on the team's development squad. In his best move so far, Nelson has demoted former long-time starter Adonal Foyle to designated fouler. Oh yeah, Zarko and Matt Barnes -- Chris Taft is officially gone -- round out the frontcourt bench.

Look for other teams to take it right into the paint against the outmanned Warriors frontcourt, early and often. Don't hold your breath for many stops.

The key

Once again this year, it begins and ends with Baron Davis -- despite claims to the contrary. The Diddy, who missed 28 games last year with leg ailments, must stay healthy. If he does, this could be the breakout year the Warriors have been waiting for. If he doesn't . . . the Warriors need only look to March and April of last year, which included a nine-game skid. Baron needs to stay mentally healthy too, and that means more leadership, better shot selection, and deeper focus. Baron says he's down with that. Time will tell.

Predictions

With their shiny new strategy, look for the team to start fast, with a flourish of hope and adrenaline. We seem them sitting above .500 heading into 2007 after feasting on a December schedule that features 10 games against teams that failed to make the playoffs last year. Ah, but the schedule does not look particularly kind after that. In every month thereafter, the Warriors play more games against playoff teams from last year than non-playoff teams. Last year's front-loaded schedule led to an illusory 11-6 start. After winning more than they lost in November, the team posted losing records in all other months. This year could be more of the same unless the Warriors can man up and start beating quality teams, teams they're not necessarily expected to beat.

But this isn't 1991 anymore (damn, maybe it is). Coaches and NBA scouts have had many, many years to think about small-ball, which is the NBA equivalent of the Run-and-Shoot. And where is the Run-and-Shoot today? How many teams are using it? How many NBA teams are intentionally running a small lineup? Small-ball will win some regular-season ballgames, but it won't win the big games or the important games or the games against elite NBA teams, especially in the playoffs. Just ask the Suns.

Don Nelson has made a career out of taking bad teams and making them decent by using the desperation, last-ditch, go-to-war-with-the-team-you've-got-not-the-team-you'd-like-to-have small-ball strategy. Problem is, that's really the only approach Nelson knows. And he uses it everywhere he goes. He's like the Marty Schottenheimer of the NBA -- he'll get you respectable, probably even to the playoffs, but he'll never get you past the first round.

Nelson's legacy (some would call it baggage) is both a blessing and a curse for the Warriors. This season it's a blessing because Warriors fans will take any modicum of improvement they can get. And the team will improve this year.

In fact, we predict that this will finally be the year! . . . that they break .500. No playoffs, but we look for the Warriors to finish 42-40, fourth in the Pacific Division (ahead of the Kings) and tenth in the Western Conference. That's a reasonable best-case scenario. But if Baron goes down or Nelson blows up or small-ball doesn't work with this team, it could be unlucky number 13 this year and more of the same for fans of the fighters.