The Warriors: 2006-2007 season preview, part one
Here we go Warriors fans. It's been 12 years since our hometown hoopsters last tasted the sweet nectar of postseason. Will this year be lucky number 13? It depends on your expectations.
This is basically the same team that went 34-48 last season. Baron and JRich are the stars, Murphy and Dunleavy are gonna get plenty of PT, and the bench is long on potential but short on experience. That's not encouraging.
The draft was lackluster. Chris Mullin went with two seven-footers in order to address the team's lack of frontcourt presence. Taking Patrick O'Bryant with the nine pick was a foregone conclusion, but Mully and Co. flat-out wasted their second round pick by taking Serbian Kosta Perovic. Perovic plays in multiple European leagues and may never play a minute for this team. Meanwhile, the Warriors took a pass on local star Leon Powe, an obvious second-round pick for this franchise. The Warriors Draft: A legacy of greatness.
Not much wheeling and dealing either. Mullin unloaded Derek Fisher's heavy contract for three guys that have never been in our kitchen, one of whom, Keith McLeod, will make the team as a backup point guard. The team also signed Dujuan Wagner and Anthony Roberson, a couple of high-scoring guards that provide some legitimate depth to the backcourt.
The Warriors are going to need both both Biddy and JRich in uniform if they're going to have any chance of making the playoffs this year. Photo from espn.com.
By far the biggest offseason move was dumping the milquetoast Mike Montgomery and bringing back the last coach to lead the team to the playoffs, Don Nelson. Clearly a desperate and unimaginative move, it had the additional side effect of rendering the team's draft choices irrelevant. Regardless, it was better than another season under Monty.
With Nelson, the team now has an identity. Along with his experience and enthusiasm, Nellie also brings an overall philosophy to a team needing all of the above. His small-ball focuses on smaller players who can bring the ball up court quickly before the defense can get set. On the flip side, defense is an afterthought because Nelson wants his teams to overwhelm the opponent with fast tempo and superior conditioning. The best defense is a good offense paradigm.
Nellie's style is a decent fit for the current Warriors configuration, which doesn't have much defensive prowess and is strongest in the backcourt. This team will score a lot more points than last year, but it will also turn the ball over and give up more points. Expect a lot of 126-116 games this year.
The numbers
If Don Nelson can make it through the entire season without losing his mind or getting fragged by a browbeaten team, his presence will translate to more victories this year than last. The question is will it be enough to make the playoffs.
By our scientific calculations, to make the playoffs, the Warriors are going to need at least 10 more wins than they had last year. In 2005-2006, the Warriors finished 34-48, while the Sacramento Kings, the last playoff team in the Western Conference, finished 44-38. Ten wins is a tall order, but not out of the question. Figure that Nelson's superior regular-season coaching abilities are worth five wins and the new small-ball style might be worth another five wins. So there you go. Eh, but hold on a second. The Warriors lack of frontcourt presence may cost them five games, and depending on how unreasonable Nellie gets during the team's first seven-game losing streak of the season, a Nelson Fatigue Factor might sap another five wins from the team's potential. Well crap, that's ten up and ten down, pretty much a wash. Freakin' science.
There are definitely some areas for improvement where the Warriors could pick up some of those 10 wins, starting with the Pacific Division. Last year the Warriors were just 8-12 against PacDiv foes, including 0-4 versus the Lakers. Similarly, the lads went just 19-33 against Western Conference opponents. These are the teams against which the Warriors are directly competing for a playoff spot. They must win more of these games to have any shot at a playoff berth.
Similarly, the Warriors need to start winning games against quality teams. Last year, they took care of business against sub-.500 teams, going 21-17 against the league's whelps, including 6-0 against the two worst teams (Knicks, Blazers). But against teams with a .500 record or better, the Warriors were just 13-31. That ain't gonna cut it.
On the road. Again, they actually had a winning record at home last year (21-20), but outside the Bay Area, the bottom dropped out to the tune of 13-28.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we know what they need to do, but how are they going to do it? Volume. By attempting 100 shots a night. Go for it Nellie, should be exciting, if not successful. Precision might help too though. Last year the Warriors field-goal shooting percentage (43.3) was more than two percentage points lower than the league average (45.4). The team also shot three-pointers (34.1) and free throws (71.8) at lower percentages than the league averages (35.9; 74.5). We know Nellie's fired up about free throws, but if the team can also improve on the rest of its shooting, then its lack of frontcourt presence won't be as glaring of a problem because there will be fewer potential offensive rebounds not to get.
Tomorrow: Strengths, weaknesses, and our predictions for the Warriors in 2006-2007.