October 5, 2006
The Worst Is Yet To Come?
Trying to figure out what your house is worth in today's real estate market is only slightly less difficult than practicing haruspicy to predict what will happen next week. Articles like the one that appeared in today's Wall Street Journal can only add to that uneasy feeling in the guts of anyone who was counting on their improving equity to bail them out of their adjustable-rate mortgage.
According to the research firm Moody's Economy.com, homeowners in the Bay Area can expect their houses' values to continue plunging for a while. A handy chart summed up the anticipated moments when prices in some cities will hit rock bottom, and how far they'll plunge from their highest point.
If you live in Stockton, housing prices hit their peak in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2005; they're expected to drop 15.7% and hit their low in Q4 2008. Oakland mortgage-holders may not be delighted to know that housing prices also peaked in Q4 2005, and they can expect to sink 6.4% from that high by Q2 2008. (At least they won't have to hold their breath and wait for the worst as long as their Stockton brethren-in-debt.) Meanwhile, it looks like Napa residents are already in the price trough: Economy.com calculates that their pricing slump -- 3.8% down from the housing-price highs of the go-go first quarter of this year -- hit in the financial quarter we just wrapped up, Q3.
And, proving yet again that San Jose moves to the beat of a different real-estate drummer, the be-mortgaged down there haven't even hit the anticipated price peaks -- that is expected to happen in Q1 2007. Then, prices are forecast to plunge a whopping 0.7% in Q2 2007. Whether this actually happens -- or whether legions of would-be buyers hold off because they don't want to buy in that that peak -- remains to be seen.
SFist Lisa, contributing.
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Um, not to be overly critical, but you're kind of missing an important point of this story (assuming this is still SFist, and not say, Danvillist), which is that according to the Chronicle,
which seems maybe like something those of us who live in San Francisco might want to know (not that we can afford houses, or anything, but still).Hi! I was writing my post around the data in the WSJ story I read, so I was going off the data I saw in that story. I admit, I hadn't even had time to read the SF Chron until a few minutes ago (busy day).
And, in the WSJ story I read, I thought the NorCal communities that can expect to be hit should be noted. I don't know why that makes this Danvilleist, but I'm confident you can explain that to me as well.
I'm going to name my next band "Haruspicy."
Well, perhaps Danvillist is a little harsh, but it seems odd for a site called SFist to write a post that says "homeowners in the Bay Area can expect their houses' values to continue plunging for a while." when it's so flat out not true for SF, not to mention two of the other Bay Area counties.