May 27, 2006
The Warriors: When a Lottery Pick Just Isn't a Lottery Pick
On Tuesday, the Warriors walked away from the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery slightly disappointed with the number nine pick. If only they had finished that high in the Western Conference this past season.
The NBA Draft Lottery, a transparently made-for-media non-event, is not the actual draft. Instead, it is a drawing of ping-pong balls to determine the order in which the 14 sad-sack teams that didn't make the playoffs will select in the actual draft -- Wednesday, June 28 in Madison Square Garden. Based on a complicated formula of ping-pong balls and futility, the Warriors were expected to get the number nine pick; they had only a 2.2 percent chance of getting the number one pick. For once, they lived up to expectations.
Thanks for nothing.
In a draft that seems, ahem, a bit short on talent, the Warriors have what amounts to a tweener -- a pick not high enough to land them one of the premier players in the country, but high enough to make them feel like they should get something out of yet another season in the wilderness.
Rack o' lottery balls from Golden State Warriors official website.
It's a lottery pick for crying out loud, the Warriors should be able to get something. Unfortunately, this ain't the NFL draft, where teams with the nine pick in a weak draft can trade down for two lower picks in the first round and actually come out ahead in the deal. In the NBA, whose draft consists of just two rounds, it's mostly about the top five picks. Sure, low first round picks can develop over time, and occasionally a player from the second round or even an undrafted player like the Phoenix Suns' Raja Bell makes the league, but the Warriors need to pick an immediate impact player. In this draft, the nine pick might be outside the impact zone.
But then again . . . this could work out well for the Warrs, in spite of themselves. Word on the street is that ole Flattop and the brain trust (including Rod Higgins, who picked Kwame Brown with the number one overall pick in 2001 -- uh-oh) are thinking about Villanova's Randy Foye. Foye is a ferocious 6'4" swingman who went absolutely ballistic in the NCAA tournament. Foye is energy and determination and scrap -- all traits the Warriors could use more of. Tuesday on KNBR's The Razor and Mister T radio show, Tom Tolbert likened Foye to a mini Mitch Richmond. Ah Mitch Richmond, good times.
We hear you, we hear you. Another freakin' swingman? True, the last thing the team needs is another swingman, but check this: Foye and Monta Ellis are the future of the Warriors' backcourt. Draft Foye and trade both Jason Richardson and Mikeal Pietrus (and see if you can throw in Dunleavy and Foyle for nothing -- hell, we'll pay somebody to take them) while their trade value is high.
Despite Mullin's hollow claims that the talent to win is already in place, the Warriors are going to have to shake up the roster if they want to make the playoffs next year. Of course, the biggest need is for a new head coach, but beyond that, the Warriors are desperate for two things: an imposing force in the paint and a high-percentage outside shooter.
It's probably best that they look for a veteran big man to fill their needs in the paint. Duke big man Shelden Williams might be available, and Bradley's seven-footer Patrick O'Bryant has attractive size, but the Warriors need some experience in the front court. Ike Diogu, who the Warriors got with the number nine pick last year, shows great potential, but he is undersized and needs a mentor to show him the ropes (Adonal Foyle need not apply). Attractive prospects include Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox, and Nazr Mohammed.
The Warriors desperately need a pure shooter to compliment the Baron's slashing drives to the hoop. J.J. Reddick is up for grabs in this draft, but many around the league are questioning whether he has the body and the full range of skills necessary to make it in the Bigs. This worries us greatly because players like Reddick seem to draw the Warriors to their demise like moths to a $50-million guaranteed contract. Adam Morrison is also out there, but he's more of a scorer and less of a pure shooter. The Warriors are probably better off also acquiring this piece of the puzzle through a trade or free agency. Somebody like Peja Stojakovic, perhaps.
Maybe the number nine spot is for the best. The last time the Warriors upwardly mobiled in the draft lottery was in 1995, when they jumped from fifth to first. That year they used their lucky good fortune to pick Joe Smith, and we all know how that turned out. If the number nine pick doesn't work out, the Warriors also have the number 38 pick, so they got that going for them, which is nice.
Drafts are always a crap shoot, but Chronicle writer Janny Hu probably sums it up best: "When it comes to the lottery, it seems the Warriors are the only sure bet."
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You mention Raja Bell, but didn't the Warriors waste a 2nd round pick on Gilbertology? Can you imagine a team of Jamison, Arenas, Hugues. Maybe that would make the playoffs.
Good call Cedichou, the Warriors did nab an undersized sophomore out of Arizona named Gilbert Arenas in the second round of the 2001 draft. But let us ask you this, given the current configuration of the Warriors, who would you rather have right now: Arenas or Bell? We think Bell. This team already has enough offensive-minded players, what it needs is a tough, gritty scrapper who can stick like glue to the other team's top guard.
We can imagine a Warriors team with Jamison, Arenas, and Hughes -- it's called the 2001-2002 Warriors squad that finished 21-61, 7th in the Pacific Division and last in the Western Conference. That team also gave up the most points per game in the league (103.1) and shot a horrible .429 from the field.
We wouldn't take Larry Hughes if you paid us. He's injury prone and has proven that he is not a clutch player. Sure he makes a spectacular shot every once in while, but when the game is on the line, he's nowhwere to be found. The Warriors already have that piece of the puzzle in place.
Antawn puts up good scoring and rebounding numbers, but plays no defense. Troy Murphy and Antawn Jamison are essentially the same player and look what Murph has done for the team.
Arenas has blossomed as a great scorer and team leader in Washington, but what about defense. And with Jason Richardson currently holding down the #2 spot in the Warriors' backcourt, how is Arenas an upgrade?
Defense, toughness, and better coaching, that's what the Warriors desperately need for next year, and none of the three guys you mentioned could really improve the Warriors current mix. Now, Ben Wallace . . .
Randy Foye and Monta Ellis are the future of the Warriors' backcourt? That's a short backcourt with 6'3" and 6'4" guards. Ideally, with his size and quickness, you would want Ellis to back up Baron at the point. If he puts on a little muscle and works religiously on his jump shot, there is no reason to think he couldn't develop into a player like Arenas or Barbosa. I worry a little bit about his aggressiveness and heart, though. Last year, he seemed too timid too often, offensively.
Bloggers are way too tough on Richardson. Sure, he really isn't a clutch player right now, but you can't doubt his heart and his work ethic. The guy comes to play every night, carries the team on his back, and is a border-line All Star right now. I know that Jason has the most trade value of any Warrior by far, but you can't trade him for anything less than an All Star if you want to make the playoffs next season. Build around Richardson. Do you really want to start over again?
J.J. Reddick? Please, the Warrriors already have him right now only he goes by the name of Derek Fisher.
The Warriors aren't likely to land Ben Wallace, unless Dumars decides to break up the Pistons and agrees to a sign-and-trade (which is a possibility considering the Pistons look like they have peaked with their current roster). I think a guy like Joel Przybilla could help the Warrior's defense if he regains his form from 2 years ago. I'm not sure that Chris Wilcox or Nazr Mohammed would be much better than what we already have.
Anyway, in this draft, which does not have a lot of impact players, the Warriors should just draft the best guy on the board, whether it is a big or a small guy. The Warriors have enough holes right now that the right guy could make a difference at any position. Plus, there are likely to be some spots up for competition if Mullin actually goes through with a big trade this summer.
Yo D-ren,
Point taken. Your are right on the money in saying that JRich is a stand-up guy who comes to play every night and doesn't deserve to be sent packing (although would JRich consider a trade an insult or a blessing?). He is the Warriors best player, but that also makes him the most marketable commodity the Warriors have going for them. We don't want to start over, but with all the long-term contracts that Mullin has foolishly handed out, we doubt he'll be able to pull out a legitimate blockbuster trade with anybody else on the team (maybe Pietrus, or dare we say it, Baron). If the Warriors could get a first-line veteran big man for JRich, then not only wouldn't they have to start over, they'd actually have taken a step forward. We're not necessarily looking to trade JRich because of what he has or hasn't done (although the case could be made that his big numbers don't equate to Warriors success), but because of his potential value around the league.
We agree with you about Reddick too, although we think the more appropriate counterpart on the current Warriors squad is Dunleavy, not Fisher. Pass on Reddick, unless, he is going to come of the bench as a designated scorer in the mold of Steve Kerr or John Paxson. That scenario could work, but we don't like Reddick as a starter (again, see freakin' Dunleavy).
We'll have to disagree with you about a backcourt of Ellis and Foye being too short. The Suns have two-time MVP 6'3" Steve Nash and 6'3" Leandro Barbosa. The Pistons have 6'3" Chauncey Billups and their best defensive guard is 6'2" Lindsey Hunter. The Mavs start 6'2" Jason Terry, and the Heat start 6'4" Dwayne Wade (who, like Foye, can play like he's 6'8") and 6'1" Jason Williams. Elsewhere, Gilbert Arenas is 6'3", Gary Payton is 6'4", Tony Parker is 6'2", Ben Gordon is 6'3", and Allen Iverson is 6'0". Granted, most of these players are point guards, but that's where our call for a defensive stopper along the lines of a Raja Bell or a Bruce Bowen come into play. No, we don't think a backcourt of Ellis and Foye is too short to compete in the NBA, not if the frontcourt and the coaching schemes are up to snuff (just ask the Phoenix Suns about how much size matters).
And hold the cellphone right there D-ren, cuz we thought we heard you call for career 4.0 ppg and 5.6 rpg Joel Przybilla. Huh? Them's Adonal Foyle numbers there, and last we checked, we already had our all-glove, no-bat center. Pass on Przybilla, and hold out for a legitimate big man that can actually contribute something on both ends.
We love Big Ben, but he does struggle on the offensive end. If Mullin can't swing a proven veteran big man, we think he should think outside his box-and-1 and look at taking Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant or, taking a flyer on Seattle's seven-footer Robert Swift. This guy has some offensive skills and with a little more bulk, he could be a shot-blocking presence as well. Plus, we could probably get him pretty cheap -- maybe we could even pawn off Dunleavy and Foyle to get him.
We'll talk more about the Warriors' draft possiblities as the draft (June 28) approaches, but we're dubious about this front office's ability to clearly delineate a path to victory.
The only reason that I mentioned Joel Przybilla is because Chris said that the Warriors should go after a free agent like Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox, and Nazr Mohammed. Przybilla actually averaged 8.8 points/game, 3.4 blocks/game and 10.1 rebounds/game in the second half of the 04-05 season. His defensive stats in that period are better than Mohammed's or Wilcox's, and Przybilla is likely to be less expensive. The Warriors are already spending a lot of money on Foyle, so we have to be realistic about how much they would spend on another big man when they already also have Murphy, Biedrins and Diogu. (Also, the Sonics would be stupid to trade Robert Swift.)
Yes, there are a lot of great guards in the league 6'4" and under (and you forgot Jason Kidd) but most teams will pair a shorter guard with a taller "2" guard in the starting line-up. The exception is usually when they have a defensive stopper in the SF spot... and size DOES matter. Don't you think the Suns would have loved to have Amare Stoudamire healthy? Or Kurt Thomas healthy for more of the season? But even with their current line-up, the Suns are successful because they have the best PG in the game (who totally out-played Baron head-to-head) and a roster full of athletic guys who can shoot from outside AND take it to the rim.
I'm still against trading Richardson unless you get an All Star in return (and teams don't usually trade "big" for "small"). Yes, the case could be made that his big numbers don't equate to Warriors success -- and that is because it is a 5 man game. Even Kobe could only take the Lakers so far by himself. Ray Allen couldn't take the Sonics to the playoffs and he has Rashard Lewis. Yes, the Warriors could use an upgrade in the front-court, but are any of the other guards ready to step up and fill in for Jason's offensive production? I don't think so.
Drafting Patrick O'Bryant wouldn't really be a reach because ESPN has him ranked in the bottom half of the top 10. Like I said, in this draft, the Warriors should just draft the best player available (and that list does not include Reddick).