Get Ready, Get Set, Draft
SFist can't remember whom the comedian or writer was, but we recently read something by someone about the nature of geekdom. What they were wondering is why if somebody spends endless amounts of time, say, debating the ins and outs of Star Wars, watching the DVDs, going on message boards, and camping out before movies, they are somehow total geek losers, their masculinity completely in question. If, however, they spend endless amounts of time debating the ins and outs of NFL draft picks, studying the draft, and an entire weekend doing nothing but watching the draft, they are considered not geeks or losers, but the very height of manly man. This despite the fact that Star Wars has way more explosions and cool-ass space ships. What we are getting at is that tomorrow is the NFL Draft and SFist has long felt that the NFL Draft is one of the most annoyingly over hyped, over analyzed sports event of the year. Heck, it even has a logo and it’s own coporate sponsor. Life is way too short to spend idle amounts of time contemplating the draft. Especially when we have a fantasy baseball team we have to take care of.
This draft has taken on a measure of extra hype here in the Bay Area as your San Francisco 49ers have the #1 draft pick and are, as they say on ESPN, on the clock. As a result, all eyes are on the Niners. Who they pick and what they do is a measure of much conjecture in the sporting world, with everyone who is anyone and even some people who are no one (like SFist) weighing in. Draft a QB? Draft the best player available? Make a trade? Flip a coin or pick names out of a hat? At this point, every player eligible has been analyzed and psychoanalyzed and had their analysis psychoanalyzed and their psychoanalysis analyzed. The decision is seen as that much of a bigger deal because the Niners, the once proud Forty Frickin' Niners, have been laid low by incompetence and are now under new management, a new management whose first official management decision is who to draft. Make a great pick and new coach Mike Nolan becomes a hero and owner John York gets nothing but love. Make a lousy draft pick and Nolan becomes the new Dennis Erickson and York, well, whose got the squatter rights to Yorkmustgo.com?
Right now, most of the scuttlebutt seems to be that the Niners will pick either Cal QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah QB Alex Smith. Who the Niners pick is anybody’s guess, as the Niners aren't talking. Word on the street has it that the official gambling line has it on Smith. But we repeat, nobody really knows for sure. Rodgers is seen as the more polished QB but he's being penalized for playing for a coach, Tedford, whose previous QBs have all washed out in the NFL. Smith has better stats, but he played in a gimmicky offense and is seen as not quite as polished as Rodgers. He does, however, have what everyone likes to call "intangibles," which is NFL scout speak for "we just like the cut of his gib." Of course, the decision might not even be over who has the most talent as word has it that the Niners have been negotiating not just with the two QBs, but two other players, to see who would be the most amenable to signing now instead of holding out now and signing later.
As for what SFist thinks, besides not caring, we do kind of like Peter King's suggestion to draft the best player available and go for a QB later in the draft. The Daily Quickie Guy on ESPN also says go with the best player available and try and hold out (read suck for one more season) on a QB so you can go after USC's dreamy Matt Leinart. The trading down suggestion makes a lot of sense too. After all, having the #1 pick has usually been more a curse than a blessing. Sure, there’s been your Peyton Manning’s or your Michael Vick’s to be had, but there’s plenty more Tim Couch’s or Ki-Jana Carter’s. And as every football-head can tell you, Tom "Three Time Superbowl Winner" Brady was a sixth round pick. In fact, some Moneyball type cranked the numbers and discovered that statically, the #1 pick is worth way less than bupkus. Because of all the hype, the sporting press comes out and determines that Player X is the person who should be drafted (or in this case, either Player X or Player Y) and so everyone thinks "yeah! We Want Player X!" So if the team doesn’t go with Player X, everyone gets upset. Draft picks, especially #1 draft picks, are as much a PR move as football move, and a team can’t really afford to take the bad PR in making what's seen as a bad PR move. Of course, if the franchise was smart, they'd draft whomever they wanted and damn what the media and fans think, but teams that are smart enough to do things like that usually don’t have the #1 draft pick.
Which brings us back to the Niners.